Sunday, Dec. 08, 2002

Forecast 2003: In The Line Of Fire

By DONALD MACINTYRE/Seoul, SCOTT MacLEOD/Baghdad and AZADEH MOAVENI/New York

Will George W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" get broken next year? In Iraq, Saddam Hussein was working hard to deny Bush a reason to attack. He gave U.N. weapons inspectors free rein, letting them into one of his palaces, and even apologized for his 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Few were fooled, especially after reports that Iraq was bugging the inspectors' offices. Saddam will pursue his old game of cheat and retreat, and the inspectors will have fresh problems tracking his nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. It's not clear, for example, whether they can find the hidden weapons facilities Saddam may have created over the past four years. Searching for evidence of biological weapons development will also be tough, since mobile bio-weapon labs could elude satellite detection. Trickiest of all may be the issue of chemical weapons. The country has a huge civilian chemical industry, which makes it simpler for Saddam to conceal illicit programs or claim innocence if inspectors uncover something suspicious. If Saddam gets caught out, he'll plead ignorance or misunderstanding, all the while trying to sow discord between the U.S. and the antiwar camp. Last week, Iraqi Lieut. General Hossam Mohammed Amin declared that his country "has no weapons of mass destruction" and handed over a 12,000-page report on its nuclear, chemical and biological programs. The report, which will take weeks to analyze, is a key test. The Americans say they have "solid evidence" Saddam is lying. Can they prove it? If so, the bombs will fall.

The U.S. hopes a win in Iraq will spark a regional move to more democratic governments. But in Iran, students might get there first. During a protest at Tehran University last month, 5,000 students chanted: "We're ready for an uprising!" The fact that crowds of students can still frighten the daylights out of the Islamic Republic shows just how little has changed since the summer of 1999, when their demonstrations shook the regime to the core — and just how much of a political battle still lies ahead. Iran's reformists are going for the regime's jugular: the actual laws from which hard-line clerical bodies derive their vast political power. Next year, new laws will be considered that expand reformist President Mohammed Khatami's oversight of powerful state institutions like the Revolutionary Guard, which defends state security, and the state media, currently accountable only to Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei. Khatami may resign if hard-liners obstruct his bid for more power. If Khatami were to go, the pro-reform majority in parliament would go with him, plunging Iran into a crisis of legitimacy few believe the Islamic regime would survive. But a messy war in Iraq could provoke the hard-liners to intervene, either by causing mischief along Iran's long border with Iraq or staging the coup reformists fear. This year something has to give. Khatami will either have to deliver the reforms he has promised — or make room for someone else to do it. Otherwise students, long frustrated by their thwarted hopes for more political and social freedoms, may take matters into their own hands.

The specter of a nuclear-armed North Korea will keep the reclusive regime on everybody's radar. But with Iraq at the top of the U.S. foreign-policy agenda, Washington will try to keep the North Korean crisis on hold until it has finished disarming Saddam Hussein. In the meantime, North Korea could surprise everyone by agreeing to dismantle its program, perhaps in exchange for economic aid or security guarantees from the U.S. Washington has said it won't talk to the North Koreans until they shut down their program, but dialogue could be the only way out of the crisis.