Sunday, Dec. 08, 2002

Living With Fear

By JAMES GRAFF

We've all become used to the grim cloud of terrorism hanging over us, but in the coming year the threat looks darker than ever. No one needs reminding that terror comes in new forms: suicide bombings have become sickeningly familiar, but mass hostage takings and missile attacks against commercial airliners are now part of our reality, while smallpox and cyanide strikes in the underground are part of our fears. All of the threats come from a diffuse terror network waging a global guerrilla war that seems destined to last for years.

Twelve months ago there was optimism that Osama bin Laden had died in the rubble of Tora Bora; he squelched that hope with his latest audio missive. But recent al-Qaeda successes illustrate that orders need not come from on high. This year's attacks against French naval contractors in Pakistan, German tourists in Tunisia, mostly Australian nightclubbers in Bali, and Israeli hotel guests in Kenya all drive home bin Laden's matter-of-fact claim that no one is safe anymore. That doesn't mean al-Qaeda-inspired terrorists have abandoned efforts to strike further blows in the heartlands of their enemies. Security experts in Europe and the U.S. are edgier than ever. While they have a bead on certain cells with connections to previous plots, and can claim real success in mopping some of them up, fears have grown that countless other potential terrorists are still at large, waiting to strike. Says a Dutch intelligence official: "There is a lattice of networks we know nothing about."

In response to the inchoate nature of the threat, governments will continue to pass new laws and allocate more money to anti-terror measures. The Bush Administration, for example, has asked Congress to approve $45 billion for fiscal 2003 to fight terrorism, up from $37 billion this year. As many as 30,000 U.S. commercial pilots are expected to be carrying guns in the cockpit by early next year. In France and the U.K., broader police powers against suspected terrorists could cause a backlash among Muslim citizens who find themselves unfairly in the crosshairs. The costs of terrorism accrue not only in human lives and government budgets, but in a forfeit of civil liberties. "We are beginning to see the increasing use of terrorism to demonize political opponents, throttle freedom of speech and the press, and delegitimize legitimate political grievances," warns U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. That may be unavoidable, but it won't help resolve the grievances that terrorists claim as their motivation. As the physical battle against terrorism continues, it will become more crucial than ever to bridge the widening gap between the West and a Muslim world given to seeing itself as a victim. Next year would be a good time to start.