Elections To Watch

The vote, expected in spring, will be a referendum on President Olusegun Obasanjo's rule. He's begun to revive the economy, but unemployment is above 50% and ethnic and religious violence are rife. Obasanjo will win re-election, but governing Africa's great black hope won't get any easier.

Voters will have a choice between peacemakers and hardliners in January — and they'll choose the hard-line. New Labor leader Amram Mitzna will be conciliatory to the Palestinians, but Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Likud will win big on the right and center.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad will stand aside for his deputy, Ahmad Abdullah Badawi, in October. But Abdullah's perceived lack of a political killer-instinct will precipitate a succession struggle in his party, which could upset the nation's delicate multiracial balance.

North Korea's nuclear arms program raises the stakes for the December race between Lee Hoi-chang and Roh Moo Hyun. Roh would press Pyongyang to dismantle its nuke program but won't stop aid; Lee would suspend aid until the North swears off nukes for good.

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