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MIRAFLORES PALACE/REUTERS
 JAMIL BITTAR/REUTERS
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Because Presidents Lula and Chávez represent two paths for Latin America's future—Lula aims to help the poor and woo investors, while Chávez espouses an anti-U.S. line—their rift makes them this year's Latin American Newsmakers
Like a lost and angry driver who sees a dead end ahead, Latin American politics took a left turn this year. Around the region, indigenous and other poor workers rose up in wrathful opposition to economic globalization. In Bolivia , they forced a free-market President to resign, and if a special election is called there in late 2004, they appear likely to vote in Evo Morales, the socialist, anti-U.S. leader of a coca growers' union. Even in Mexico and Colombia , which have conservative Presidents, the most popular pols of the moment are the leftist mayor of Mexico City and mayor-elect of Bogotá. Their promise: alternatives to a decade of capitalist reforms that have, in many cases, exacerbated the continent's poverty, corruption and inequality.
At the vanguard of this new leftism are two Presidents following two different paths [EM] and the coming year may well decide which route the region follows. On the moderate path is Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 58, the Workers' Party veteran who governs Latin America 's largest and most populous nation. Lula's mix of laborite, stand-up-to-the-U.S. populism and prudent, please-the-imf fiscal policy has made him the Third World 's new spokesman. But it has also made him suspect in the eyes of globalization foes. On the radical road is Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, 49, who controls the hemisphere's largest oil reserves. His quasi-statist Bolivarian Revolution [EM] named after South American independence hero Simon Bolívar [EM] has given voice to Venezuela 's vast numbers of poor and inspired the likes of Morales. But Chávez has also flirted with the dictatorial style of his chum Fidel Castro. "There is a collision coming," says Venezuelan political analyst Alberto Garrido. "Lula is trying to find a position within the globalization movement; Chávez is leading a revolution against it."
Most experts predict [EM] or hope [EM] that Lula's way will prevail. "Lula is the hope for Latin America ," says Harley Shaiken, director of the University of California at Berkeley 's Center for Latin American Studies. "If he fails, there are few other viable options." What has made Lula so popular in his first year in office, from Wall Street to Rio de Janeiro's slums, are his efforts to make antipoverty crusades like Fome Zero (Zero Hunger) financially viable [EM] chiefly by resisting the temptation to take Brazil back to Latin America's disastrous days of profligate spending and hyperinflation. Still, if Lula looks sure to strengthen Brazil 's balance sheet this year with crucial pension and tax reforms, his most daunting challenge begins in 2004. Should he fail to deliver on promises like Fome Zero, job creation and land reform, Brazilians [EM] and the masses watching in other Latin nations [EM] may dismiss him as one more sellout to U.S.-imposed economic orthodoxy. "Sometimes we have to take a diversion from our road," Lula said in a November plea for patience.
Chávez, whose 1998 election sparked the region's antiglobalization backlash, faces his own threat in 2004: a likely constitutional recall referendum early next year. Chávez thwarted a 2002 coup attempt and a general strike this year. But his authoritarian bent has scared away investment, enervated the oil sector and helped create a deep economic recession. This month his foes say they presented the necessary 2.4 million signatures for the recall vote. Until now, polls indicated Chávez was headed for a resounding defeat. But as his antipoverty programs take hold in places like Caracas ' hillside slums, his approval rating has suddenly jumped from 30% to 40% [EM] and he's confident the region will eventually follow him. "We're developing a new model of participative democracy" that will "unify the countries of Latin America ," he said recently. The region is moving leftward. The question Lula and Chávez will help decide is: How far?
Text by Tim Padgett with Andrew Downie/Rio De Janeiro and Brian Ellsworth/Caracas
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