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SOUTH KOREA | MARCH 2, 1998 VOL. 151 NO. 8 |
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The real trouble, however, remains at home. For all his early progress, Kim leads a fragile parliamentary coalition in which his chief ally, Kim Jong Pil, is a conservative establishment pol. (Ironically, he is also the founder of the kcia, which was responsible for the 1973 kidnapping in Tokyo.) To win his support, Kim not only agreed to nominate "J.P." to the prime ministership, but also to adopt a parliamentary system, which would give the Prime Minister more power. The opposition Grand National Party, which controls the National Assembly, has already voiced disapproval of those plans. And although its leaders have pledged "not to attack" Kim Dae Jung for the time being, the party is unlikely to make life easy for the new President. "I've been at the opposite end of the political spectrum for 25 years," says party leader Kim Yoon Hwan. "It's possible but it isn't going to be easy to change that." In hopes of defusing that tension, Kim has pledged to form a coalition cabinet made up of talent from all leading parties. Though detractors claim he lacks a competent brain trust, Kim has already succeeded in luring some of Korea's best and brightest away from their conservative roots. Several of his top deputies served under Chun and Roh. The President's famous all-night talk sessions have left skeptics impressed with his "vast pool of knowledge," as one convert puts it--and his willingness to change his mind when presented with a thoughtful argument. What is most remarkable about Kim's resolve to tackle Korea's problems is the former dissident's patience, infused with a surprising willingness to forgive. "He is a man who would not let the past interfere with the future," says Yoo Jong Keun, a provincial governor and one of Kim's key economic advisers. Even Kim's supporters once feared he might use his presidency to settle old scores with those who persecuted him for so many years. Yet no sooner had he won election than he agreed to pardon former presidents Chun and Roh from their lifetime jail sentences for corruption. He has so far resisted calls to investigate and perhaps prosecute Kim Young Sam, who deserted him 11 years ago, for his mismanagement of the economy. The problem is that in the tough months ahead, such magnanimity will only become more difficult. First, Korea may face another debt crisis: billions of dollars in short-term corporate debt comes due at the end of March. Even if the country squeaks past that deadline, the economy will probably get worse before it gets better, as companies and banks fail and layoffs increase. "In one sense, we have turned the corner," says economist Yoo. "That doesn't mean we are out of the woods." Growing unemployment will increase the prospect of social unrest--for which Korea is already well-known, particularly during the spring, when students regularly hit the streets in anti-government protests. And the clamor for someone to take the blame for Korea's economic plight may make it impossible to avoid a public bloodletting. In the beginning, such criticism will be directed, no doubt, at outgoing President Kim Young Sam. But if the new President is unable to keep a balance between reform and retribution, he could soon feel the backlash, and hard. Says Kim Jong In, a former presidential economics adviser: "If he wants to succeed, Mr. Kim will have to realize that he doesn't have that much time." This week, as luminaries from George Soros to Michael Jackson to Corazon Aquino descend on Seoul for his inauguration, Kim is doubtless aware that the real celebration will have to come later. With reporting by Stella Kim/Seoul
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