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EUROPE | APRIL 27, 1998 VOL. 151 NO. 17 |
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Now The Battle For Peace As Northern Ireland confronts its future, the most bitter contest is being fought within the unionist camp By BARRY HILLENBRAND /BELFAST
It had not taken long for the euphoria over the peace proposal to subside. The Trimble-Paisley exchange was just one of a number of opening salvos fired last week in the battle to win approval of the historic agreement. Copies of the proposed plan are being mailed to every household in Northern Ireland, and on May 22 voters in both Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will vote in a referendum on the settlement package. A number of parties are squarely behind the agreement, and early polls indicate that public opinion in Northern Ireland supports the deal by a 70 to 14 margin. But there is vociferous opposition, especially among unionists. Paisley, who has made a long and colorful career out of saying No, is leading the attack. And Trimble, too, must reckon with a serious split within his U.U.P, the largest and most important of the unionist parties. The agreement, however, has some powerful backing: the governments in London and Dublin, which last week were busily reassuring doubters on all sides. In an effort to sweeten the deal for hard-line Catholic nationalists, the Irish government arranged early release from prison for nine prisoners with links to the I.R.A. who were serving time for terrorist offenses. British Prime Minister Tony Blair, meanwhile, attempted to calm the nerves of unionists concerned that the I.R.A. has yet to turn in weapons or convincingly renounce the use of violence. Blair said that politicians from parties with terrorist links will be barred from office unless their paramilitaries begin to disarm on schedule. "There are no winners or losers in this document," said Mo Mowlam, Blair's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, waving a copy of the agreement in front of audiences. "Everybody has something to bring home, which means there is an improvement from where they sat before." Public statements from leaders of Sinn Fein, the political wing of the I.R.A., were few and far between--and extremely vague. President Gerry Adams traveled throughout Ireland attending private meetings trying to sell the agreement to the party's hard core supporters including, of course, key members of the I.R.A. Adams admits it's tough going. "Most people recognize that there are useful things in the agreement," he says. "But the big question is whether there are enough." Yet when Adams finally came out with a speech supporting the agreement at a party convention in Dublin, he was received by a cheering crowd of supporters. But the party has yet to approve the document. Adams still has considerable convincing to do. Despite Sinn Fein's hesitancy about firmly backing it, the agreement has solid support among Catholics. John Hume, leader of the Social Democrat and Labour Party, the largest Catholic party, is proving to be a powerful advocate. The document provides significant gains for nationalists by guaranteeing them political representation in the new Northern Ireland assembly and increased cross-border links with the Irish Republic. In addition, the agreement gets to the heart of what the Catholic community calls "equality of esteem." The Irish language, for example, will at last get an official standing. A committee will be set up to reform the Royal Ulster Constabulary, the Northern Irish police force hated in the Catholic community. It is these concessions, though, that are causing jitters among some in the unionist community, long accustomed to both political and cultural dominance. No matter that the nationalists also surrendered significant ground in the agreement; militant unionists only see what they gave away, not what they gained. And they fear that the I.R.A. is lurking in the background, ready to pounce if more concessions are not made to the nationalists. "The I.R.A. will not quit until they force a united Ireland down our throats," says M.P. William Thompson, a member of Trimble's U.U.P., who opposes the agreement. As many as six of the 10 Ulster Unionist members of Parliament may well agree with Thompson and refuse to campaign for a Yes vote in the referendum. But Trimble won an important victory when the 700-member council of the party voted to support the agreement. The party members may still be deeply suspicious and uncertain, but they seemed to accept Trimble's argument that there is "simply no viable alternative to the agreement, despite its many shortcomings." All the electioneering, though, cannot reach those who long ago abandoned conventional political discourse: armed terrorists--both Catholic and Protestant--who oppose the agreement and say they are prepared to wreck the chance of reconciliation between the two communities. The Loyalist Volunteer Force, a Protestant terrorist group, threatens to continue its killing ways in County Armagh. "We have lived with 30 years of war already," warns one supporter. "We are not going to give them [the Catholics] what they want and so they may as well go back to war because we are not going to stop." Splinter groups of the I.R.A. are equally opposed and will need little or no encouragement to plunge back into the fray. In the weeks to come, the acrimonious debate will no doubt continue, with Paisley and his dedicated followers, masters of heckling and political showmanship, planted front and center. But polls seem to indicate that his self-appointed role as spoiler of the peace agreement has won him few new supporters. The desire for peace and the will to make the agreement work is widespread. After 30 years of troubles, most of the people of Northern Ireland are ready to embrace a future they don't know, rather than an all too familiar, and deadly, past.
THE NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE AGREEMENT: SOME SAY YES. SOME SAY NO.
THE SUPPORTERS
THE UNDECIDED
THE DIVIDED
THE OPPOSITION
THE VIOLENT OPPOSITION
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