Death of strongman Abacha gives Nigeria a chance to reform

By CHRISTOPHER OGDEN

heart attack at age 54? no evidence of foul play? Yeah, sure. Still, that was the word from Nigeria, where strongman Sani Abacha died last week after a corrupt and brutal five-year rule. The news was reminiscent of the April death of Pol Pot, the genocidal leader of Cambodia's Khmer Rouge, who expired conveniently just as his arrest and possible trial appeared imminent. He too was said to have died of "natural causes"--more likely a loose translation for what happened after a former follower held a pillow over his face.

Abacha may not have been murdered. And maybe Pol Pot wasn't either. What's certain is that each deserved a death sentence and the world is a better place without them. But can Nigeria now become a better place? It's hard to believe it could get much worse. The most populous and potentially the richest African nation, Nigeria may also be the world's most corrupt state, a sewer of poverty, human rights abuses, repressive rule, drug dealers and business scammers. On any list of nations in need of a sharp change of direction, Nigeria is up there with North Korea and Iraq.

With Abacha's death, however it came about, Nigeria does have a chance to change, though it will be an uphill struggle. One of the highest hurdles is that the country has had so little experience of civilian rule. The military has ruled Nigeria for 28 of its 38 years of independence. Abacha, a former general, was its seventh military leader, and his successor, General Abdulsalam Abubakar, until last week was Chief of Staff. Few of the past military leaders showed much inclination to promote democratic rule, although Abacha was a horrific dictator who did so much to transform Nigeria into a pariah state that some of his senior officers soured on his leadership--and were arrested and killed when Abacha found out about their views. But he did not get everyone. Some Nigeria experts, including former U.S. ambassador Walter Carrington, say Abubakar was among those disenchanted by Abacha's excesses and that he is a non-political general, a professional soldier who believes in civilian authority.

If true, Nigeria can free political prisoners--including Moshood Abiola, the wealthy businessman who won the 1993 election annulled by the military--drop press restrictions, hold elections and take the first step in a new direction. Far too often, though, repeated promises of electoral and market reform in Africa turn out to be lies. Laurent Kabila stirred hopes a year ago when he overturned the larcenous regime of Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire and promised a brave, clean new world. But all he has delivered is a change of the country's name to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Abacha, who hanged civil rights activists in 1995, repeatedly promised national elections, most recently for Aug. 1 with a civilian president taking over on Oct. 1. But he also made certain he was the sole nominee of each of Nigeria's five legal political parties. Abubakar has said that he will stick to that schedule. What he hasn't said is whether he will seek the office himself or open up the process. If he campaigns, it won't take the gifted student class to figure out who wins and what doesn't change.

The Clinton administration is watching what happens with particular interest, given the President's empathetic six-nation tour of Africa less than three months ago. In keeping with his trip's theme of democratization and reform Clinton skipped Nigeria, but the country fascinates him. At each stop he called the Nigerian situation "a tragedy." He asked every African leader he met what might be done to reverse the tyranny there. Most told Clinton it was none of his business how they ran their nations. As usual, he was not daunted and asking won him points at home, notably among African-Americans and a business community drooling over a half-billion consumers who would be available in sub-Saharan markets if only more countries had leaders like Nelson Mandela.

The short-term concern in the U.S. and elsewhere is the possibility of instability in Nigeria, which was wracked by a 1967-70 civil war that produced more than a million casualties. That prospect also worries oil companies like Chevron and Mobil, because Nigeria is the fifth largest supplier of imported oil to the U.S. In the past, big oil was often reluctant to promote democracy, frightened of rocking its prosperous boat. But Nigeria's fields and facilities are in such chaos, and the scale of corruption under Abacha became so great, that oil firms have rethought strategy and scaled back operations. They are no longer balking as Washington spreads the word that there are no excuses for delaying reform and that Abubakar knows what to do to begin transforming Nigeria.

If Abubakar does not move there is little more that the U.S. is prepared to do--beyond hoping that "natural causes" will ultimately win the day.