|
||||
|
|
MONEY MONITOR | JULY 1998 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Four all-weather stocks that can keep your money safe By JEFF USCHER
Nonetheless, it's a mistake to avoid stocks altogether, since share prices can rebound powerfully and with very little warning. The smartest strategy for investors today is to focus on the shares of companies that make or sell goods and services people buy in bad times as well as good. Chief among such stable businesses are providers of the products used in the course of daily life--food, soft drinks, beer, soap, toothpaste and cigarettes. Here's a quick look at four such all-weather stocks that are attractively priced and poised for a rebound. --PT Smart Corporation, part of Indonesia's Sinar Mas group, is an integrated grower, processor and distributor of palm oil and consumer products such as cooking oil and margarine. PT Smart also manages many of the Sinar Mas group's oil-processing subsidiaries. The company derives 80% of its US$72 million revenue from sales of unbranded oil products that have held up relatively well in spite of depressed consumer incomes. Sales of the company's more profitable branded palm oil products grew by nearly 29% over the past year, largely because of a 21% price hike for the firm's Filma brand cooking oil. In April, PT Smart repaid $100 million of the $150 million it owed to Fuji Bank. Few Indonesian companies with U.S. dollar-denominated debt have been strong enough to match that achievement. PT Smart also stands to benefit later this year from liberalized laws governing the export of palm oil products. Nonetheless, the company's share price has fallen almost 50% from its April peak. Analysts expect the stock to come back 30% to 50% once the situation in Indonesia stabilizes. --Pacific Andes International Holdings is a Hong Kong-based distributor of frozen fish and fish products, with annual sales of $330 million. The company gets most of its fish directly from the Russian Pacific fleet through barter transactions, sending provisions and fuel in addition to cash and receiving payment in fish. The company processes its fish in China and then distributes frozen fish products to well-established markets including Hong Kong, Singapore and North America. However, Pacific Andes is also developing an important market in mainland China. As the Chinese economy slows, Pacific Andes will likely see growing demand for its inexpensive frozen fish products. For 1997, in fact, sales of fish to China grew by 56% to $165 million, making up more than half of the company's revenues. Pacific Andes' share price has fallen dramatically over past months despite good results. At $0.03, the shares are selling at about twice estimated 1998 earnings and look clearly underpriced. --Rothmans of Pall Mall Bhd offers an excellent combination of a strong brand name and a large advertising budget. With sales of $500 million, the company has the largest share in the Malaysian market of 19 million people. Cigarette consumption in Asia soared during the recent boom, and millions of people will continue to buy cigarettes even if they cannot really afford them. For the year ended March 31, Rothmans reported a 15% gain in earnings to $0.43 a share and has announced that it expects continued solid profits for the current fiscal year. In the past 12 months, the share price has fallen 6% in local currency--and roughly four times that in U.S. dollars. That will likely make the stock appealing to institutional investors. --SM Prime Holdings, the Philippines' largest owner and operator of shopping malls, with annual revenues of $104 million, is thriving despite the region's economic troubles. The chain has traditionally catered to middle- and low-income shoppers, and bargain-hunters are flocking to the malls looking for good deals. Encouraged by the fact that two recently completed malls in Cavite and Quezon City have already leased out 85% of their space, SM Prime plans to break ground on two more malls this year, for a total of nine. After reporting a 33% gain in earnings for the first quarter, SM Prime saw its stock recover almost to pre-crisis levels. Analysts think SM Prime could report earnings of about $0.20 a share for 1998, a gain of 28% from 1997, and see the stock rising as much as 40% over the coming 12 months.
STOCKS FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES These four companies figure to hold up despite recent economic turbulence because they sell staple products that are always in demand.
Notes: Prices are as of June 16, 1998. Price drop in local currency is since June 30, 1997. Price/earnings ratios are based on analysts estimates of 1998 results. Earnings gains are analysts' projections for the next 12 months. N.M.--Not Meaningful
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
time-webmaster@pathfinder.com |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||