THE GREAT CASPIAN OIL GRAB

I read with great interest your article on exploiting and developing the petroleum reserves in the Caspian Sea [June 29]. Last year I prepared a report on the evolution of the situation in central Asia and in the Caucasus and its relationship to European security. You noted that a former U.S. official warned that the U.S. had made a strategic mistake in paying so little attention to the new central Asian nations. That warning applies today to the European Union. In order to minimize possible future regional conflicts, it is important to promote the construction of all necessary Caspian oil pipeline routes. An important part of the monetary benefits from oil must be invested in the Central Asian and Caucasian economies so these countries can maintain their independence from surrounding nations. The oil companies have to participate actively in this policy.
RICHARD PREIN
Gometz le Chatel, France Your otherwise excellent report on Caspian oil politics ignored China, a major new player. Last fall China bought a controlling interest in Kazakhstan's second largest oil field, beating the Americans. Moreover, the path of Turkmenistan gas to China via Pakistan must go through Afghanistan. This could explain why the U.S. only meekly criticizes the abusive ways of the government there as it tries to ensure stability. The shift toward energy sources in the East may be the main harbinger of the political economy of the 21st century.
ERIC FENSTER
Montreuil, France The oil companies and analysts love to talk up Caspian oil so they can create jobs and contracts for each other, but with falling prices, declining demand and a mature product, how could anyone have a bonanza? Oil prices are in the low to middle range and are likely to stay there. In the Caspian Sea, where the reservoirs are large, there are political hazards and difficulties of delivery. Oil prices are a product of supply and demand. If there is a sharp rise in production and a decline in demand, we could see a world price of $10 per bbl. At that low price, it would not be economic to produce it. In the energy sector, an increase in business will come mainly from new products in the form of clean fuel, rather than more oil production.
BABAK EMAMIAN, Editor and Publisher
British-Iranian Business News
London

NIGERIA'S DEMOCRACY

In his commentary on the future of Nigeria after the death of strongman Sani Abacha [June 22], Christopher Ogden described that country as undemocratic and "a sewer of poverty, human-rights abuses, repressive rule, drug dealers and business scammers." But in the U.S., the Ku Klux Klan is a legal organization and exists alongside racist churches and the Aryan Nation. Gangs and maverick militia members run amuck waving guns. Children settle school scuffles with guns. I suggest that the U.S. should clean up its own act before lecturing anyone else. Nigerian democracy suits its citizens just fine.
CHARLIE CARTEL
Hamburg Ogden described Nigeria in terms that make us Nigerians wince, even as we know them to be true. Abacha got to become Nigeria's head of government only because of a system that was created and maintained by many former army colleagues, whom he later turned against. I hope his death is the end of a history lesson, one we Nigerians needed in order to appreciate the virtues of a democratic and unselfish society. A bad seed can offer only bad fruit. This is a chance for a new beginning for Nigeria. We must now plant the good seed.
ABI' ADEBOLA
London

CZECHS AND GYPSIES

I strongly object to the statement in your report on the Czech election and economy [June 29] that "the greater the malaise, the greater the need for a scapegoat, and among the Czech Republic's 10 million people, the main targets are gypsies." The Czechs are not a nation of racists. It is not true that many people blame the gypsies for the state of the economy or for anything else bothering us. The violence against the Romanies always comes from the primitive far right and is not a phenomenon of the nation as a whole.
MIROSLAV PALAT
Prague

SOUTH AFRICANS ON THE MOVE

The high urban crime rate and attacks on Afrikaner farmers in South Africa described in your article [June 29] surely have resulted in many so-called die-hard Afrikaners looking for their own homeland, where they believe they can live in peace. But only a small minority of Afrikaners prefer to develop a homeland as proposed in a barren part of the country. A large number of disillusioned South Africans (not only Afrikaners) have already successfully found new homelands outside our borders. These homelands are Australia, New Zealand, Britain, the U.S., Canada and Europe, where numbers of ex-South Africans now contribute successfully to the economy of these countries. As the attacks on farmers, the hijacking of cars, the robbing of bank security vehicles and the burglary of shops and houses continue, this outflow will not stop.
GERRIT VAN WYK
Bloemfontein, South Africa

INSIDE A CHANGING NATION

Whether isolationists like it or not, the Chinese are quickly becoming the future of the world [June 29]. They are dealing effectively with overpopulation and dwindling natural resources, and at the same time lifting themselves out of Third World status. Their discipline and pragmatism will raise the standard of living for all Chinese; liberty as we know it will come later, and it can wait. Eventually the Chinese will throw off the old trappings of Stalinist and Maoist philosophy and adopt a culture that balances the privileges of liberty with the responsibilities thereof. Surely the next hundred years will be called "the Chinese Century."
MARC NEVILLE
Harrisburg, Pa.

The $50 billion annual trade deficit the U.S. has with China cast a shadow over President Clinton's visit there. The Chinese government has made great efforts to sell to Americans, but it has gone to even greater lengths to prevent Americans from selling to China. Tariffs, quotas, obscure laws, prejudicial inspections and so on are routinely used by Chinese authorities to prevent American sales. This reverberates in the U.S., affecting thousands of companies and workers. It is time for Clinton to try strenuously to break down all the Chinese trade barriers. For starters, how about trying to get China to grant most-favored-nation status to the U.S.?
CARL OLSON, Chairman
State Department Watch
Washington The difference between U.S. policy toward China and U.S policy toward Cuba is an example of the worst political double standard of the century.
PATRICK MAY
Vancouver, Canada

You noted that for the past 20 years China has exported dangerous weapons to countries the U.S. distrusts and that China has provided Pakistan with "bomb designs." A question arises: If the superpowers of the world were so concerned about nuclear proliferation (as they now profess to be), what steps did they take for most of these past 20 years to stop China? And who is to undo the considerable damage already done? It seems clear that trade and commerce have a higher priority in the superpowers' scheme of things than stopping nuclear proliferation. Why this sudden pious concern when India, a nuclear baby in comparison to the superpowers, decides to test its capability?
YEZAD KAPADIA
Gurgaon, India

THE IMF AS A BAD GUY

If the Imf's manifesto is to push certain Asian nations to take the actions necessary to return confidence [June 22], then its current policies are plain daft. If the biggest employers, manufacturers, builders and banks in Asia go under, will folks start partying in the streets? Economies survive on people's perception of wealth, their future earning capacity and their outlook for their purchasing power. Introduce doubts and calamitous assessments of the economy, and you remove this perception of stability. Witness Japan: no one will spend. More than anything else, we need a return of confidence on the part of the domestic consumer. The "higher" ideals of the West should perhaps be better left to times when we have full stomachs and idle minds--not when Asians are battling to see the sun rise on their economies.
KULDEEP SINGH
London

VICTIMS OF MILOSEVIC

Isn't it a paradox that Serb leader Slobodan Milosevic is doing everything possible to provoke NATO air strikes on the Yugoslav province of Kosovo [June 22] even though the West is supportive of Serbia's claim to the province? The West has been dealing with this irrational dictator for so long, but hasn't yet learned its lesson. Milosevic holds nothing sacred except staying in power. He thrives on conflict and chaos. He has clung to Kosovo and refused to let the ethnic Albanians have their independence. If the West really wants peace in the Balkans, it should concentrate on removing and punishing Milosevic, not on condemning the Serbian people. They are as much his victims as anybody else.
SRBOLJUB PETROVIC
Moscow

SMOKE GETS IN YOUR EYES

The U.S. lawmakers who voted down the tobacco bill belong on the sidelines [June 29]. Every day 3,000 children become addicted to the cigarettes and tobacco that kill 419,000 smokers each year. Unless this trend is checked, the effects on our national health will be devastating in 10 years. How do we break this self-destructive habit? The tobacco bill, which aimed to raise cigarette taxes and increase regulation, would have been a start. If another such measure is brought to a vote, efforts by lawmakers must be focused on its passage and not on the likelihood of lost campaign funding from Big Tobacco.
DICK MONTGOMERY
Battle Creek, Mich. The dependency of our elected representatives on tobacco money must end. The public has the power to put a stop to it by rejecting those who blatantly serve the industry's interests. In the face of documents showing that the tobacco industry deliberately marketed to children, no self-respecting Senator or Representative can claim the industry bears no responsibility for teen smoking. Apathetic or not, I think Americans will see through the veil of tobacco money on Election Day.
ANDREW GARDNER, age 17
Anchorage

DON'T BLAME THE WEATHER

Your report on global forest fires was right on target [June 22]. In the rain forests of the world, people, not weather changes, are the culprits. Loggers, ranchers and plantation owners cut down vital tree cover to clear the way for roads, cropland and pasture. Peasant farmers burn areas of forest to clear land for subsistence agriculture. In the end we all pay for the loss of watersheds, biodiversity and carbon absorption. But we cannot expect the poor to conserve for the future when their survival is in jeopardy. Our program is doing its share in countries such as Cameroon, Guyana, Uganda and Vietnam by bringing together government authorities and private enterprises to support strategies for sustainable forest management.
JAMES GUSTAVE SPETH, Administrator
U.N. Development Program
New York City