With King Hussein's health in question, Jordan ponders the royal succession

By LISA BEYER /AMMAN

cross the room, the government official spied an old friend, a journalist briefly visiting Amman. Before the reporter could say a word, the official admonished: "If you want a lunch, a dinner, a boat to tour the Gulf of Aqaba, I can give you everything. But please, don't ask me any questions about the King's health. Don't ask me about the succession." In Jordan, it is the hottest non-subject going: What will happen now that King Hussein--beloved, shrewd statesman nonpareil and ruler for 46 years--has been diagnosed with lymphoma, an often fatal cancer. For the most part, discussing the King's death is taboo, "something like plotting a military coup," says a former Jordanian diplomat. But when the King's subjects feel safe enough to speak, and promises are made that there is no danger that names will be published, the topic proves irresistible, not least because of the anxieties it evokes. "The people in Jordan are afraid," says the ex-diplomat. "The King is the tent under which they are protected."

It was the Hashemite King himself who broached the issue of his health. Two weeks ago, Hussein made public a letter to his brother, Crown Prince Hassan, divulging that his doctors at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota thought he had lymphatic cancer. Last week they confirmed it. Hussein's lymphoma is of a type that responds to chemotherapy, which the King has already begun. His Mayo physicians say they are optimistic he can be cured. Speaking on Jordanian television via satellite, Hussein told his people, "Rest assured, I am not over and done with." Nevertheless, he looked fragile and pale. This is the 62-year-old monarch's second bout with cancer; he lost a kidney to the disease in 1992.

The immediate issue of succession appears to be resolved. Hassan, 51, has been Hussein's designated heir for 33 years and is expected to take over from his brother without challenge, despite the gaggle of sons Hussein has produced over his tumultuous romantic history. The palace, however, is not without intrigue. The naming of Hassan's successor will likely cause royal frictions. Hassan himself is a talented and respected figure, but as King he would inherit a mess of political and economic burdens that could frazzle any leader. "If the King had wanted to get sick," says a Western diplomat in Amman, "this is not the best time to do it."

It was in 1965, the year Hassan turned 18, that Hussein named his brother crown prince. Hussein himself was proclaimed King at the age of 16, after his father, King Talal, became incapacitated by mental illness a year after taking over from his father, King Abdullah, who was assassinated in 1951. In anointing Hassan, Hussein passed over a middle brother, Muhammad, who was considered less able. At the time, Hussein had two sons of his own, Abdullah and Feisal, but some members of the royal family questioned their credentials as rulers since their mother, Briton Toni Gardiner, was not an Arab. A previous marriage to a Hashemite relative, Dina Abdel Hamid, produced a daughter, Alia, but under the Jordanian constitution only males may assume the throne. After Hassan's appointment as crown prince, Hussein married two more times. His third wife, Alia Touqan, from a prominent Palestinian family, gave him another son, Ali, whose bona fides as a potential king were not in question. Hussein's fourth and current wife, Lisa Halaby, known as Queen Noor, who comes from a Lebanese-American family, had two more boys, Hamzah and Hashem.

The King is understood to prefer that Hassan, once he ascends the throne, name one of Hussein's sons crown prince, rather than Hassan's own. Until recently, Prince Ali, 23, was said to be Hussein's favorite, but he has fallen out of favor because of his playboy lifestyle. Lately, Hussein has been grooming Hamzah, 18, who frequently accompanies his father on official functions. Hassan, however, has his own son, Rashid, 19, who was conspicuously by his father's side through the freighted events of last week. One palace insider speculates that despite Hussein's wishes, Hassan will name his own son regent. Rashid's ascension could spark challenges from Hamzah or Ali, especially given that Rashid's Pakistani mother, like Abdullah's, is a non-Arab. "Anyone who assumes that the Hashemite family is united or will remain united about the succession issue is making a mistake," says the palace source.

Even without these conflicts, Hassan would have his hands full. The Jordanian economy is badly troubled. Recently, in the wake of reforms urged by the International Monetary Fund, it appeared to be recovering from the blows of the 1991 Gulf crisis, which closed off Jordan's principal market, Iraq. But it turns out that government forecasts were unduly rosy. Growth last year was only 2.7% and unemployment is estimated at 25%.

The single greatest showpiece of Jordanian foreign policy in recent years, the 1994 peace treaty with Israel, could become a liability for the palace. Ordinary Jordanians are embittered that the peace dividend they expected through an opening of the markets of the West Bank and Israel never materialized. "It's a peace of the palace, and not of the people," says the Amman-based Western diplomat. At the same time, the palace worries over the disintegration of the peace accords between Israel and the Palestinians. Both Hussein and Hassan have expressed fears that the outbreak of a major confrontation between Israeli and Palestinian security forces would send thousands of new Palestinian refugees flooding into Jordan.

Such an influx would exacerbate a demographic embarrassment. Because of previous waves of refugees produced by the Arab-Israeli wars of 1948 and 1967, a majority--perhaps 65%--of Jordan's residents are of Palestinian origin. Their loyalty to the monarchy has always been open to question. Enemies of the Hashemites ask why Jordan should be led by anyone other than a Palestinian. Should the Palestinians ever succeed in establishing their own state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, some Jordanians fear the next step would be to claim Jordan as well. On top of everything else, Jordan faces hostile neighbors in most directions. Syrian leader Hafez Assad's antipathy to the Hashemites is legend. Officially, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have normalized ties with Jordan, but relations are still icy. Meanwhile, Iraq and Jordan have fallen out over King Hussein's public suggestion that Iraqis would be better off without Saddam Hussein.

None of these problems is new to Hassan, who has been his brother's intimate partner in governance, especially since the first cancer scare in 1992. Hassan, an Oxford graduate, is known to be a hard worker with a head for details. By nature, he is less of a man of the people than his famously charismatic brother, though in recent years he has grown more comfortable with pressing the flesh.

No significant policy differences between the brothers have ever come to light, and Hassan is expected to stick to Hussein's moderate course: one of slow democratization, commitment to Arab-Israeli peace, IMF-style economic reform and close relations with the West. "He'll have to work harder because he can't walk into a crowd and have people just follow him like they do Hussein," says the Western diplomat. Nevertheless, Hassan comes to the throne with the advantage of maturity. However popular and trusted he is today, Hussein had to grow into the job. When he was first crowned, detractors--notably Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser--dismissed Hussein as "the boy King" and a tool of imperialism. No one would speak of the accomplished and dignified Hassan in such terms.

--With Reporting by Jamil Hamad /Amman