To manage Asia's future, the U.S., China and Japan must think like a trio

By EZRA VOGEL

he new power structure in Asia centers on an unstable triangle, comprising China, Japan and the United States. This three-way relationship urgently needs better management to deal with the dangers confronting the region--the financial crises, political instabilities, weapons rivalries, environmental devastation, natural disasters, border conflicts and disruptions of energy supply. The triangle could deteriorate into an unstable competition between two seeking alliances with the third, or into a tense conflict of two against one.

At times, the three have gotten along well together. They worked in harmony in dealing with the dangers of nuclear weapons and famine in North Korea. They toiled together under the United Nations banner in Cambodia. They have cooperated in APEC and in the ASEAN Regional Forum. But more often, their dealings have been awkward, strained and antagonistic. In the past several years, each country has mistakenly focused on bilateral issues without adequately considering the impact on the third party.

Washington has mismanaged the triangle by:

--Failing to keep China sufficiently informed at the highest levels when the U.S. and Japan were revising their security agreement, thus fueling Beijing's fears that the U.S.-Japan alliance was aimed at China. That issue still haunts the U.S. partnership with China, despite the great success of President Clinton's recent visit.

--Neglecting even to mention the alliance with Japan during Clinton's visit to China. That, in addition to the President's decision not to stop off in Japan, intensified Tokyo's worries that any improvement in U.S.-China relations would be at Japan's expense.

--Castigating Japan for failing to follow specific U.S. advice on how to manage its economic problems, while praising China for not depreciating its currency. This struck Japan as interfering in its domestic affairs and heightened Japanese fears that improved U.S.-China ties would hurt Tokyo's relationship with Washington.

Beijing has mismanaged the relationship by:

--Allowing President Jiang Zemin to pay a conspicuous visit to Pearl Harbor during his visit to the U.S. last year, thus giving the impression that China wished to improve relations with the U.S. at the expense of Japan.

--Attacking vigorously the revision of the U.S.-Japan security agreement, thus increasing the possibility that Washington and Tokyo would consider China a potential common foe.

--Encouraging Clinton to come to China without visiting Japan and without publicly acknowledging the U.S-Japan security relationship. That gave the impression China wanted to drive a wedge between Tokyo and Washington.

Tokyo has mismanaged the relationship by:

--Not keeping pace with the U.S. in improving relations with China, especially by not fully investigating and publicly discussing Japan's activities during World War II.

--Being insufficiently sensitive to the impact on Asia of Japan's failure to provide enough fiscal stimulus to help resolve the region's economic crisis, thus creating the perception that the U.S. and China were cooperating to end the Asian crisis while Japan was not.

--Failing to keep China sufficiently informed during discussions with the U.S. on security issues, thus fueling Chinese suspicions.

But all is not lost. To make the triangle work, all three countries must:

--Make it clear that, for both Tokyo and Washington, improving relations with China is based on the acceptance of the U.S.-Japan security alliance and will not be undertaken at the expense of American ties with Japan.

--Avoid alliances aimed at the third party and keep the third party informed of bilateral developments. On specific issues, two countries may express similar views different from those of the third party, but they must take care not to appear to gang up against the third country.

--Undertake broader discussions, like the ones between Clinton and Jiang, that inform the people of all three countries of the need for close relations among all three.

--Increase rapidly trilateral cooperation in all major fields, including joint military exercises for humanitarian emergencies.

--Maintain open relations between the triangle and other countries, especially Russia, South Korea, India and Pakistan and the members of ASEAN. Unlike the European Union, the triangle should not be a closed club operating at the expense of other countries.

With a new Prime Minister in Tokyo, and with Washington and Beijing basking in the afterglow of Clinton's visit, there is now a rare opportunity to put the triangular relationship onto a stable footing.

Ezra Vogel is director of the Asia Center at Harvard University