The New Rules Of Engagement

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The top British military commander, Michael Boyce, said last week that commando operations could go on for weeks at a time to give Western forces the chance to gather intelligence on their prey. But the longer special forces are on the ground inside Afghanistan, the bigger the bull's-eye on their backs. The special-ops raid staged near Kandahar last month nearly ended in disaster when, as TIME reported last week, U.S. commandos were ambushed by Taliban guerrillas. A central piece of the U.S. strategy--to grease the gates of entry into southern Afghanistan by turning tribal leaders and warlords against the Taliban--may have died along with Haq. His capture also highlighted the treachery of the Taliban's network of spies in Pakistan, who will try to tip off holy warriors in Kandahar to pending U.S. raids. In American war rooms, that reality--and the memories of Beirut and Mogadishu--haunts military strategists. As long as the public is patient and intelligence is thin, the Pentagon will wait on ordering up big commando missions that might produce heavy American casualties.

RULE 4: GIRD FOR WINTER

By late November, frigid winds will be blowing south from Siberia, and the mountain paths of the Hindu Kush will be buried in snow. The main supply route for Northern Alliance fighters north of Kabul will ice over. Working in the Alliance's favor: the Taliban like the cold even less. "They are from the south, so they are not used to winter fighting," says Noorahmad Atay, a commander in the Alliance-held Keshem district. "We are cold-weather people, so we can fight without a problem."

The U.S. Army has for years trained to fight in winter conditions. But no matter how inured to the elements a fighting force may be, everything is harder in the cold. Bundled-up troops have difficulty moving and hearing instructions, and the cushion of snow can smother the potency of munitions. Soldiers barreling out of transport planes must prevent the condensation that forms inside their rifle barrels from freezing; that could cause weapons to burst when fired.

The weather poses particular problems for special-ops forces, who rely on low-altitude helicopter and warplane support that could get scuppered by storms. But one of the key methods the U.S. military will use to hunt down cave-dwelling terrorists will be helped by the chill. U.S. choppers are equipped with systems especially designed to detect heat--including warm air coming from occupied caves. Once such a cave is detected, F-15Es will be dispatched to collapse it by dropping 5,000-lb. EGBU-28 bunker-busting bombs on them, or by firing AGM-130 Maverick missiles into them. Inclement weather may offer an added bonus: if a storm strands bin Laden's traveling convoy in a mountain hideaway for even a day too long, the U.S.'s heat-seeking gunships may have time to take him out.

RULE 5: GET A BETTER MEGAPHONE