Bibi's Back

The dance music at the Schwartz Bar Mitzvah in the next hall thumps through the walls of the gaudy banquet room where Benjamin Netanyahu is making a pitch to send Yasser Arafat packing. "We have to throw him out," the former Israeli Prime Minister tells a gathering of 600 activists from his right-wing Likud Party. "Put him on a plane out of here." The Likud supporters, who have come from all over northern Israel to the port city of Haifa to hear him speak, rise to their feet and drown out the DJ with a rhythmic chant of Netanyahu's nickname: "Bi-bi! Bi-bi!"

These days it isn't just the Likud faithful who like Netanyahu's message. Israelis generally blame Palestinian leader Arafat for nearly 18 months of violence that has left 351 Israelis dead--as well as 1,195 Palestinians. At week's end, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, under U.S. pressure, seemed prepared to meet with high-level Palestinian representatives to discuss a possible cease-fire. Nonetheless, many Israelis still feel that Sharon has not delivered on his promise that he--and only he--could "bring security." One poll shows 73% are dissatisfied with Sharon's government; two right-wing ministers quit last week amid predictions of early elections this year. Netanyahu, meanwhile, is wooing the Likud stalwarts with his plan to oust Arafat and impose strict Israeli control over the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Back from the political sidelines, he seems ready to pounce if Sharon's coalition collapses--as it might this year--or when the government's term expires in 2003.

It would be a startling comeback for a man who rose to become Prime Minister at 45 in 1996, but was then trounced by Ehud Barak in the 1999 general election. Netanyahu built his reputation on polished speechmaking and free-market economics in a country where neither had ever been overpopular. But Netanyahu also came across as a demagogue who did not speak out when his supporters circulated a poster portraying then Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in a Nazi SS uniform. Netanyahu may or may not have changed his spots; the intifadeh, however, has undoubtedly made Israel more susceptible to his charms.

A year ago, it was Sharon who won election with the promise of a hard hand. Even as the violence continued, many Israelis believed no one else was tough enough to handle the conflict. But in the past two months, as the bloodshed has worsened, Sharon's popularity has slipped; his personal approval rating is down to 35%. In the 3,000-member Likud central committee, his party's ruling body, the Prime Minister has the backing of just 630 members. Netanyahu has 1,680 in his pocket, according to an opinion poll published last week in an Israeli newspaper.