It's the Economy

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Republicans had hoped that the apparent recovery would take the economy off the table as an issue in this fall's congressional elections, but the latest public and private polling data suggest that they may have cause for concern. In a survey released last week, independent pollster John Zogby reported that Americans consider the Republicans no better than the Democrats on the question of which party is better at handling jobs and the economy--a dramatic slide from only two months ago, when they gave the G.O.P. a six-point edge. What's more, Democrats rated better than Republicans among every age group except 30- to 49-year-olds. Zogby warns that the economy could be the election's sleeper issue. That's partly because with about half the electorate holding stocks in retirement or savings accounts, far more Americans see their economic well-being tied to Wall Street.

The polls being prepared privately for Republicans are also unsettling. One shows that over the past two months, Americans who rank jobs as their biggest concern--the largest group of voters--have gone from feeling somewhat optimistic about the direction of the nation to marginally pessimistic. "Not a good environment for a party in power," frets a G.O.P. strategist. And once voters start worrying about whether they will keep their jobs, they become more concerned about such issues as health care and Social Security--issues on which Democrats have an edge.

One consolation for Republicans is that the Democrats have not yet found a way to use this rising public anxiety to their advantage. Democratic efforts to exploit the Enron scandal failed to resonate with voters. Nor have they found a way to sell the return of the deficit as an election issue: while many Democrats have been critical of President Bush's tax cut, few have been brave enough to call for scaling it back.

--By Karen Tumulty