Can He Take The House?

When control of Congress is at stake, a politician can't afford to miss even the smallest opportunity to gin up votes. That's why Dick Gephardt, the Democratic minority leader of the House of Representatives, found himself having coffee one morning last week with nine party activists at Mr. C's Family Restaurant in Knoxville, a speck of an Iowa town that boasts the National Sprint Car Hall of Fame and Museum. With embattled Congressman Leonard Boswell at his elbow, Gephardt implored the faithful to pour on the energy: "Iowa literally has the ability to tell us who will control the House." But a man eating breakfast nearby was thinking about the campaign after that. As Gephardt strode out, the Rev. Peter Peterson of Knoxville's United Methodist Church offered his Bible and asked Gephardt to sign it, predicting, "You're the next President of the U.S."

Gephardt said what he always says--all he's thinking about now is winning back the House--and hopped into a minivan for another 14-hour day of stumping for his Democrats, who need just six more seats to take the majority. He has raised more than $20 million for this election, doing 92 fund raisers so far this year. Some nights he sits at party headquarters until 11 p.m. dialing for West Coast dollars. He even cajoled Barbra Streisand out of retirement for a star-filled $500-a-ticket concert next month, to bring zing--and as much as $4 million--to the party's quest for the House.

Three months ago, taking back the House seemed close to impossible. Only a handful of races--maybe 40 at most--were thought to be in play, so gaining six seats was a formidable task. Once-a-decade redistricting had helped the G.O.P. a bit. And Republicans believed that George Bush's sky-high approval rating gave them a powerful talisman against the off-year election jinx that often hits the President's party.

But as WorldCom piled on Enron and Tyco and Adelphia, as Martha fell alongside Kenny Boy, as the airlines talked bankruptcy and the baseball union talked strike, the mood of the nation soured. For the first time since Sept. 11, many national polls show that most voters think the country is going in the wrong direction.

That's bad news for the party in power, which is why President Bush last week invited 240 people who agree with his economic policies to praise them at a forum in Waco, Texas. He talked of corrupt ceos in terms he once reserved for Osama bin Laden, but offered little more than assurances that "we're the greatest nation on the face of the earth." The markets--which matter more than ever in politics now that nearly half of all U.S. households hold investments--were paying more attention to the downbeat noises coming out of the Federal Reserve.

Will Americans take their anger into the voting booth this fall? There are few signs yet in the polls: Bush's job approval remains well within the healthy range, and voter preferences in congressional contests have barely budged. Says Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report: "We're not seeing any race change."