Opening with A Bang

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HEARTS AND MINDS The U.S. is hoping that the bulk of the Iraqi military would sit out the war so it could help keep the peace in a post-Saddam Iraq. U.S. planes dropped a blizzard of leaflets across southern Iraq last week. "Do not risk your life and the lives of your comrades!" read one entreaty, written over what appeared to be a picture of a dead Iraqi soldier. The other side featured a young Iraqi student in school; "Leave now and go home," it advised. "Watch your children learn, grow and prosper."

The endgame would probably begin with American forces encircling Baghdad. But U.S. troops would not rush into the city of 5 million and give Saddam the opportunity to kill them in bloody urban warfare. Instead, the plan is to cordon it off and launch targeted strikes into the capital. With Saddam and his inner circle trapped--and humanitarian aid flowing into the rest of Iraq--the war would be all but over. "If the leadership is isolated and not effective in governing the country, that would be victory," Myers said. "The ultimate objective is not Saddam Hussein."

Baghdad's civilians could be lured out of their city with promises of food and shelter, as commandos and smart bombs took down key targets inside the city. The U.S. is hoping its military juggernaut would persuade Iraqis to take matters into their own hands. "Hopefully, they'll hang Saddam in the streets of Baghdad," a British military officer in Kuwait says.

The Pentagon's war plan, while always evolving, is basically complete. As with all wars, some of what generals leak may be information designed to intimidate, deceive or divert the enemy. Franks said last week that the answer to the most important questions about the war--how long it might last and how many might die--are "unknowable." That's because, despite all the millions of variables that Pentagon planners have cranked into their computers, one remains truly unknown: whether the Iraqi military would fight to the death to defend its homeland or hail the invading Americans as liberators. Unfortunately, Franks and his commanders concede, that wouldn't become clear until the first JDAMS and G.I. boots began hitting Iraqi soil. --With reporting by Alex Perry and Simon Robinson/Kuwait