Road Map To Hell

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At this point, says the government of Ariel Sharon, either he does it, or we do it. The U.S. hopes to salvage its policy by pressing Abbas to take decisive action. The Administration made a gesture by slapping a freeze on the assets of six Hamas leaders and five Hamas funding organizations. But those groups are in Europe, and it's hard to imagine Hamas leaders' having accounts that can be easily frozen. Powell phoned Arab and European leaders for help in pressuring the Palestinian Authority. He even broke the Administration's silent treatment toward Arafat, appealing to the sidelined President, who still wields considerable power over the Authority, for help. Powell wants Arafat to lend the Authority the security forces under his control to make Abbas strong enough to challenge the militants. According to a Palestinian source, before he acts, Abbas wants guarantees from Arafat, including a written statement supporting a strike against Hamas. Even then, the prospect of fraternal bloodshed might daunt the Palestinian Authority rank and file. An Authority soldier told TIME a few weeks ago, "I don't want to betray my people or be killed for the $300 a month I earn."

Abbas and his security chief, Mohammed Dahlan, complain that Israel's assassination of Abu Shanab has forced them to shelve their plans for disarming the militants. Sharon's officials counter that the Authority was not doing anything anyway, leaving Israel no choice but to take on Hamas. "The Palestinian announcement to freeze all measures against Hamas and Islamic Jihad is ludicrous," said an Israeli intelligence officer, "since there is no activity to freeze." In the Israeli view, the militants had just been using the cease-fire to rest and rearm. According to a senior military official, Hamas has spent the past six weeks planning attacks, stockpiling explosives and improving the range of its rockets. Despite the battering they have given the Palestinian security infrastructure over the past year, Israeli officials insist Dahlan has enough strength to squelch those preparations. "The question," says the intelligence officer, "is if he also has the motivation."

The Palestinian Authority is in a jam. Gaza is up in arms, as angry at Abbas as at the Israelis. The targeted killing of a political leader--one considered rather moderate at that--outraged Palestinians in all factions and threatened to carry the violence to a terrible new level. A senior Israeli military official retorted that all Hamas leaders are equally at risk: "We don't distinguish between military and political levels in Hamas." Meanwhile, Hamas leaders went underground after calling for "Jewish blood to flood in the streets of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Haifa." Alas, there is no road map for where that kind of talk can lead. --Reported by Massimo Calabresi/Washington, Jamil Hamad/Amman and Aharon Klein/Jerusalem