The Terror Threat Continues

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As he prepares for his second term in office, President George W. Bush has to face the fact that the war on terror is not yet won. Despite limited success against terrorist personalities and the terrorist infrastructure linked to al-Qaeda, extremist groups have survived. In Southeast Asia, such groups continue to pose a significant threat to regional and Western targets alike.

Since Sept. 11, 2001, there have been three significant developments among Southeast Asian terrorist groups. First, local jihadists are behaving like al-Qaeda, from which they take their inspiration. Between 2002 and 2004, Jemaah Islamiah (J.I.), the regional group closest to al-Qaeda, conducted three mass-fatality suicide attacks against Western targets, including the bombing of nightclubs in Bali. The Abu Sayyaf group bombed a superferry in February 2004 in the Philippines, the worst maritime terrorist attack in history. And, in 2003, Singaporean and Indonesian authorities disrupted an al-Qaeda-style operation by a J.I. cell to hijack an Aeroflot plane from Bangkok and crash it into the international airport in Singapore. In the past, Southeast Asian jihadist groups never attacked Western targets or engaged in suicide operations. Now they do; and they will continue to do so in the coming years. Second, al-Qaeda linked terrorist training camps are still active in Southeast Asia. True, camps in Kalimantan, Indonesia, have been dismantled, but there are training camps on the Philippine island of Mindanao. Although the camps there are small and mobile, and the recruits trained in them few in number, the training is impressive, including study of chemical and biological agents. Third, regional governments continue to lack both the will and the wallet to target the groups' support and operational infrastructure.

The intervention by a U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan in 2001 helped reduce the strategic threat from terrorism in Southeast Asia. But the invasion of Iraq in 2003 angered Muslims in the region. Some have expressed their anger by supporting terrorist and extremist groups opposed to the U.S. Even more than Palestine, the events in Iraq have had a profound effect on Southeast Asian Muslims. It is only a matter of time before small numbers of radicalized Southeast Asians travel to Iraq to participate in the jihad. But though local Asian terrorist groups have been strengthened by the invasion of Iraq, it has also acted to reduce the threat of terrorism in Asia from al-Qaeda and groups based outside the region. Al-Qaeda traditionally maintained a presence in Southeast Asia, but events in Iraq have forced the group to focus its limited resources on the Middle East.

Unlike Muslims in the Middle East, those in Southeast Asia live in the shadows of large Buddhist, Hindu and Christian communities. Local Muslims have traditionally been moderate and tolerant. As in other regions, terrorism in Southeast Asia is supported only by a minority. But as Southeast Asia has had no indigenous history of terrorism, counterterrorism institutions in the region are weak or nonexistent. So domestic and foreign terrorist groups have been able to operate with relative ease. J.I., for example, is virtually a legal entity in Indonesia. To reduce the terrorist threat in Asia, regional governments must continue to build up their intelligence and enforcement capabilities. And regional leaders need to develop the political will to combat politically motivated violence.

In addition to developing the ability to target terrorist operational capabilities, governments must also take aim at the ideological wellsprings of terrorism. Regional governments and institutions can work together with the Muslim community and religious leaders to marginalize the radicals' message. Furthermore, they must seek to resolve existing and emerging regional conflicts, such as those in southern Philippines and southern Thailand. So long as such conflicts persist, with the perception that Muslims are suffering persecution, existing and new radical groups will find it easy to recruit members. For the governments of Southeast Asia, there is no agenda item so important as finding a healing balm for long-festering sores in the region. If that is not done, the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia—directed at local and Western targets—will continue to darken the next four years as it has the past three.