Where Are the New Recruits?

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Robert Scales, a retired Army major general and military historian, believes that the recruitment problem is affecting the Reserves and National Guard first because they reflect the mood of the times more quickly. "The active-duty Army is an insular subculture within the American body politic, a piece of Sparta in the midst of Babylon," says Scales, former head of the U.S. Army War College. He is worried that the shortfall in sign-ups will soon be felt by the regular service. "Those of us who were in Vietnam in 1969 remember all the pronouncements about how good things were going," Scales says, recalling that Pentagon figures at that time showed retention numbers to be solid. "But in 1970 the whole thing collapsed, and the Army simply broke." Soldiers were deserting in droves, enlisted men were fragging their officers, and illegal drug use was skyrocketing.

There are important differences between then and now. A draft was in effect during the Vietnam years, while today's Army is all volunteer. And, in contrast to the Vietnam era, Americans continue to support the troops in Iraq even if many oppose the war. Still, the Iraq war has changed how many young people weigh a decision to sign up for the military. "People used to think they could just join up to get money for college, and so it was easier to recruit," says Curtis Mills, 31, an Army reservist who served in Iraq as a military-police sergeant for six months in 2003. "But with what you see in the papers and everybody being deployed, it's got to be tougher." Mills, of Shapleigh, Maine, spent 11 months recovering from wounds he suffered outside Ramadi when a roadside bomb cut up his arm, leg and back in September 2003. Unable to return to his job as a postal carrier, he gets by on a $2,000 monthly disability check from the Department of Veterans Affairs.

Guard officials are not denying the obvious. "There's no question that when you have a sustained ground-combat operation going that the Guard's participating in, that makes recruiting more difficult," says Lieut. General Steven Blum, the Guard's top officer. Roughly one-fourth of the Guard's members have served in Iraq. General Peter Schoomaker, the Army Chief of Staff who was plucked from retirement by Rumsfeld in 2003, told Congress in November that he was in danger of running out of troops. "It's going to get harder the longer we go with this, no question about it," he said. He pledged to do his best to meet the demand of commanders in Iraq for fresh bodies, but added, "I can't promise more than I've got ... If the Army National Guard or Army Reserve cannot muster and provide the formations that are required, perhaps we need to increase the size of the regular Army."

Pentagon officials have been watching recruitment and retention rates closely. Until this past fall, the figures were reassuring. All but one branch of the military met recruiting and retention goals for fiscal 2004, which ended Sept. 30. The lone exception was the Army National Guard, which came in at 98% strength--342,000 instead of 350,000--on that date. The shortfall was largely attributed to the Guard's missing by 5,000 its recruiting goal of 56,000 soldiers. It was the first time in a decade that the Guard fell short. But then came the even worse performance of October and November.