Foreign Aid: How Much Will Really Go to the Victims?

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That impulse, in the U.S. and abroad, has inundated private relief groups, some of which fear getting too much in tsunami-relief aid even while the U.N. frets about not having enough. "It's hard to say when enough is enough, but we have to be frank and realistic about our absorption and delivery capacity," says Matthias Schmale, international director of the British Red Cross in London. To avoid having to reject donors, Schmale says, the British Red Cross is looking for ways to redirect donations, possibly even to the U.N. Despite the U.N.'s reputation for mismanagement, Schmale says, there is some essential large-scale work, like rebuilding roads, that only the U.N. and local governments can handle.

Once the immediate needs are addressed--by the U.N., private relief agencies or direct aid and debt relief to local governments--a new calculus will come into play. Donor countries will have to balance the long-term needs of the tsunami-affected areas with those of other desperate parts of the globe. If the total sum is eventually disbursed, the $4 billion pledged so far should be enough to finance short-term relief. But the long-term needs are unknown, and the U.N. is likely to make new pleas for help in the coming months. At that point, wealthy countries will have to determine whether they can afford to ante up again. Doing so may require them to dip deeper into their foreign-aid budgets. "We will urge that donors be prepared to go the distance," says Stephanie Bunker, a spokeswoman for the U.N.'s Humanitarian Affairs division.

The risks of bungling the aid effort are very real. Having made such conspicuous pledges to the tsunami victims, foreign governments will have to deliver results fast or risk inviting resentment from the people they are trying to help. In Afghanistan, donors pledged $2 billion in 2002 for the first crucial year of rebuilding. But Afghan officials said the country saw only a fraction of that, $90 million. Many Afghans have lost faith since then and now direct their bitterness at the relief workers who are there.

Will the tsunami victims face disappointment? If history is any guide, yes. "Unless we keep the scrutiny up, there's nothing to suggest this case will be any different," says Max Lawson, policy adviser to Oxfam, a relief and development organization. But there's also reason for hope. In country after country, it was pressure from ordinary citizens that prodded governments to do their part. In the end, such pressure is the only thing that will make official generosity more than a show. --By Jyoti Thottam. Reported by William Boston/Berlin, Simon Elegant/Jakarta, Tim McGirk/ Islamabad, Eric Roston and Elaine Shannon/ Washington and Aatish Taseer/ London

WHAT THEY'RE GIVING Official pledges of assistance to tsunami victims by the U.S. and other major donors, as of Jan. 7

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