Is There Really A Crisis?

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Bush's approach has met near universal opposition among Democrats, labor and liberal groups. The formidable AARP, a crucial ally in his successful fight last year for a Medicare prescription-drug program, is on the other side this time. It has already started newspaper ads warning that private accounts are simply too risky. "It's a little ironic that the AARP would be saying that, since one of the major things the AARP does is run [an investment program] for retirees," countered Treasury Secretary Snow in an interview with TIME. "The President made it clear that these plans are not going to be high risk. You're not going to be allowed to bet on any stocks or go out to the roulette wheel."

The politics around Social Security have shifted enough that some Democrats argue they cannot count on winning simply by saying no (though it has always worked in the past). Bruce Reed, who was President Bill Clinton's chief domestic adviser, says legislative fights should carry the same warning as investment accounts: past performance is no guarantee of future results. "We need to show we're serious about finding a sensible solution in addition to stopping his crazy one," says Reed, now president of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. "I don't think Bush can pull this off, but the best way to stop Bush from passing a bad plan is to point out what's wrong with it and show what a good plan would look like."

Bush has promised to give G.O.P. lawmakers the cover they need by spelling out the specifics of his plan and then generating so much public support that opposing it will be the risky position. "I have an obligation to lead on this issue," the President told the Wall Street Journal last week. The President had better be prepared to offer additional reassurance when House and Senate Republicans hold a retreat in West Virginia next weekend, says House G.O.P. conference chairwoman Deborah Pryce. "That is his best opportunity to sell his plan to us. We in leadership have impressed on him [that] the members of Congress are his most important audience right now. It's not an easy lift." Republican lawmakers have also told their leaders that the best cover would be a respectable number of Democrats willing to join with them as they jump off the cliff.

That would take nothing short of a public ground swell, which is why Bush plans to return to many of the techniques that got him re-elected. The Republican National Committee is putting together a war room on the issue, organizing workshops and town halls around the country, placing advocates on regional radio and deploying a rapid-response team in Washington. Bush is also counting on outside organizations. Moore, for instance, is starting a new one called the Free Enterprise Fund, with backing from conservatives on Wall Street and in business. A group called Progress for America, which has close ties to Bush political guru Karl Rove, went on the air last week with its first television ad, comparing Bush to F.D.R. Democrats quickly circulated a blistering demand by Roosevelt's grandson James Roosevelt Jr. that the group quit using his grandfather's image: "To compare the courage it took to provide a guaranteed insurance program for our seniors and the disabled to the courage it will take to dismantle the most successful social program in history is simply unconscionable."