Can Iraq's Election Be Saved?

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But holding the election under the current volatile conditions carries its own risks. The insurgents' aim is to depress turnout in the Sunni areas and strip the election of broad legitimacy. About 15 million Iraqis are eligible to vote on election day, according to Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission. A commission official predicts about half will actually cast a ballot. That kind of turnout would be acceptable, but analysts are worried that the new legislature won't adequately reflect Iraq's ethnic composition. The assembly will select a new Prime Minister and President but, more important, will also draw up a new constitution. If Sunnis don't vote in sufficient numbers--an official with a nongovernmental organization in Baghdad says that a Sunni turnout of "under 50% becomes a problem"--the drafting of the constitution will be dominated by Shi'ite Muslims. And that would further alienate Sunnis and embolden extremists, including terrorist mastermind Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi, who has called for an all-out sectarian civil war against the Shi'ites.

What's more, the electoral system devised last year by the U.S., the U.N. and the now disbanded Iraqi Governing Council could further work against the Sunnis. Rather than let candidates compete in their home provinces--which in the Sunni-dominated areas north and west of Baghdad would have guaranteed that Sunnis win seats in the constitutional assembly, no matter how many people showed up--the system effectively throws everyone into a single pool. Those candidates who receive the most votes in the national tally will win seats. At the time it was adopted, a U.S. official says, the system was "the least worst option," in part because the process of determining provincial borders would have made it impossible to meet the Administration's goal of holding elections by the end of January. But the rules were made before it became apparent that voter participation in Sunni areas would be low. If more Sunnis cannot be persuaded to vote, the constitutional assembly will be disproportionately dominated by Shi'ites and Kurds--groups that for more than two decades were mercilessly oppressed by Saddam and his Sunni-dominated government.