In The Crystal Ball

Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien has posed "10 surprises" annually for 20 years. "I see a tough backdrop this year," says Wien. His 2005 list:

1 Crude oil is the most volatile commodity of the year. After dropping to $30 per bbl., it rises to $60.

2 The hoped-for orderly decline of the dollar gives way to a sharp drop; the euro hits $1.50, the yen, 85??.

3 The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises to 6%; the federal funds rate ends the year at 4.25%.

4 The U.S. equity market goes nowhere after two years of gains. The S&P 500 index ends the year flat.

5 Resisting pressure from its trading partners, China refuses to change its currency system.

6 Japan slips back into recession as the yen strengthens; exports to China don't help.

7 Revelations of corruption in the Ukraine election trigger a second Russian Revolution; Putin resigns.

8 Oil-service and other energy-infrastructure stocks do well, especially Halliburton and Weatherford.

9 Worldwide food demand increases; corn, soybean and wheat prices rise sharply.

10 Republicans and Democrats defeat partial privatization of Social Security.