Though he bravely overcame his illness to deliver the presidential
oath of office at last week's Inaugural, most court watchers assume
that Chief Justice William Rehnquist's cancer will soon force him to
retire from the Supreme Court. Which means the guessing game is in
full swing over which of the court's sitting Justices is most likely
to replace him. If he does not go outside for the job, President Bush
will probably choose one of the court's two most stalwart
conservatives, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. Scalia seems to
have the edge. "The idea of appointing the first African-American
Chief Justice has undeniable appeal to the President," says a top
Republican who informally advises the White House on judicial
nominations. "But there'd be a huge fight over Thomas, and the
President doesn't need a fight." Though Scalia's conservatism irks
many Democrats, he was confirmed easily by the Senate in 1986, and
would probably be confirmed again without too much trouble.
Yet Scalia does not have a lock on the job. According to several
sources familiar with White House thinking on judicial nominations,
the President and his advisers are worried that the tart-tongued
Justice may not have the people skills to manage the court, build
consensus among its nine members and represent the institution in
public. That may explain why the famously dyspeptic Scalia has become
a merry mainstay on the A-list Washington social circuit of late. At
parties ranging from a charity dinner at the Kuwaiti embassy two
weeks ago to an Inaugural lunch at D.C.'s chic Cafe Milano, guests
have been surprised to find the once reclusive Scalia mixing with the
city's power brokers, making small talk and telling jokes. "Lately,
I've been running into Nino everywhere," says a friend and fellow
lawyer. "He's showing that he actually can be charming and
gregarious. It's a sign that he's really interested in the job."
