Can Iraq Rule Itself?

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For the Bush Administration, the election is producing anxieties of a different kind. The Administration has long touted the vote as a step toward handing over control to the Iraqis and paving the way for an eventual reduction of the U.S. troop presence. The establishment of a popularly elected government, in the U.S. view, would help erode support for the insurgency. But it's highly likely that the vote will be compromised by violence and plagued by Sunni underparticipation, and that means the legitimacy of the new government will be suspect from the start. And while some members of the insurgency--whose estimated strength could be higher than 20,000--may be coaxed to come in from the cold, there's little chance that jihadist guerrillas will abandon their goal of fomenting civil war. As if to underscore the point, a group loyal to Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi, the most-wanted insurgent in Iraq, released an Internet audio message last week in which al-Zarqawi purportedly vows to wage holy war against the U.S. and its allies in Iraq for years.

Even as it confronts an enemy determined to keep fighting past Jan. 30, the Administration is facing the most serious erosion yet of public support at home. A range of polls show almost half of Americans support a drawdown of U.S. forces after the Iraqi election. And despite the increasing potency of the insurgents and the inadequacy of U.S.-trained Iraqi forces to deal with them, only 4% of Americans believe that more U.S. troops should be sent to Iraq, according to a Los Angeles Times poll. For now, however, there's no timetable for reducing their ranks. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told TIME that "it's foolish to predict numbers and how much [the U.S. troop presence] will go down. It depends on how fast Iraqi security forces come along." Members of congressional armed-services committees are being warned privately by senior uniformed officers to expect at least 100,000 U.S. troops to remain in Iraq not only through this year but perhaps even through 2006. Democratic Congressman Martin Meehan, who recently returned from Iraq, says, "There's no evidence I've seen in any briefings to suggest that violence will go down. It absolutely won't go down."

Given that sobering assessment and vows by the insurgents to step up their onslaught, will next week's elections matter? For Iraqis and Americans alike, much depends on whether the new government can prove that it has real authority, bring disenfranchised Sunnis into the political process and quickly establish itself as a credible body willing to work for national reconciliation. Considering the performance of the current government, headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, chances that the new leadership can impose order aren't great. If it fails, the country could slide into civil war. And yet, unlike the U.S.-appointed Allawi regime, which answers to Washington, an elected government will be able to control its own destiny. As Iraqis take over, the country may well become more conservative, less secular and perhaps more hospitable to Iran. That may come as a rude jolt of reality to those who still believe Iraq could become a beachhead of liberal democracy in the Middle East. But for Americans who are merely looking for a way out of Iraq, next week's election could well be the start of the withdrawal process.