Can Iraq Rule Itself?

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Some Iraqi politicians speculate that the Shi'ites may even offer the presidency to a prominent Sunni--possibly the incumbent, Ghazi al-Yawer. (Others have suggested that it's the Kurds' turn to get the presidency, making Jalal Talabani the front runner.) Sunni political parties like the Iraqi Islamic Party have indicated that they may be open to some such accommodation if the terms are right.

So, under what kinds of conditions would they participate? Across the ethnic and political spectrum, Iraqi leaders say the best way for the new government to garner support would be to set a deadline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. It might even help convince rejectionists--nationalistic insurgents as well as disaffected Sunnis like contractor Nasreddin--that the new government is not a puppet of the U.S. Spokesmen for several militant groups have told TIME that a scheduled exit of U.S. troops is an essential condition for any negotiations with the new government.

It isn't just the insurgents who would like to see the U.S. go. "The best way to please the masses, to gain legitimacy and credibility," says al-Dulame, "is to slap down the Americans in a very public way." Many of the leaders on the Shi'ite slate say a summary eviction of the U.S. would not serve the new government's interests, since Iraqi security forces are in no position to pick up the slack. "When the Americans go will depend on when our own forces are ready and on how the resistance responds after the elections," says al-Mahdi. Still, the Shi'ite leadership remains adamant that it will be Baghdad's call to make. Last fall Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leading candidate on the Shi'ite slate, told TIME that the U.S. would leave when it was asked. "The decision will be an Iraqi one, not an American one," he said. "And we want this foreign army out of our country immediately. We cannot tolerate this presence on our soil."

At this point, many Americans seem willing to call al-Hakim's bluff. But the Pentagon believes a precipitous U.S. withdrawal would condemn Iraq to a bloodbath wrought by Sunni insurgents against a weak central government that might then be tempted to seek help from Iran. That said, the U.S. is well aware that the Iraqis will probably demand that the Americans start making plans to leave. In November the CIA's departing station chief in Baghdad sent a cable to Washington predicting that the new government would insist on a schedule for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. A State Department official tells TIME, "We always expected to face a request from the Iraqi government to have a specific timetable."

The U.S.'s position is that a timetable for troop withdrawal is out of the question. That, at any rate, is what top U.S. officials told an influential Sunni clerical group in early January after the imams said they would consider calling off their boycott of the vote in return for a pullout schedule. But the Pentagon is accelerating plans to embed U.S. military advisers with Iraqi security forces in hopes of improving their combat capabilities so that they can take over for U.S. troops. "The most important goal is to get the Iraqis into the fight, not to get our numbers down," says a senior Pentagon official. "I hope no one has to continue dying for this war, but it is much better that Iraqis die for their country than Americans."