Will Chávez's Oil Still Flow?

Whether or not Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is the next Fidel Castro, the leftist firebrand has mastered the Cuban's art of pushing the U.S.'s buttons--including the ones on our gas pumps. Venezuela is the U.S.'s fourth-largest oil supplier (15% of U.S. imports), a nearby and reliable source that few in Washington want to alienate. But the visit to Caracas last week by Chinese Vice President Zeng Qinghong was the latest reminder that Chávez, a sharp critic of U.S. foreign policy, wants to cut Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. market and start exporting to his oil-thirsty ideological ally, China. Talks are under way to build pipelines to pump Venezuelan crude to Pacific ports in Colombia and Panama for that very purpose.

Analysts question whether Chávez can profitably ship oil all the way to Asia, and Venezuelan officials insist that U.S. supplies will remain steady even if he does. But given Chávez's anti-Bush fervor--and the leverage that sky-high oil prices afford him--Washington is nonetheless starting to worry that the flow of Venezuelan oil might shrink significantly by the end of this decade. Indiana Senator Richard Lugar has asked the Government Accountability Office to study what "contingencies are in place to mitigate the effects" of a sharp Venezuelan shortfall, "as this could have serious consequences for our nation's security." Other Senators are urging the Bush Administration to mend fences with the democratically elected Chávez, whom it accuses of trying to destabilize Latin America, as Castro once was. But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, at her confirmation hearings, showed no signs of softening on Chávez, calling him a "negative force" in the hemisphere. Chávez, who claims that Bush backed a failed 2002 coup attempt against him (the Administration denies it), called Rice "an illiterate" who "seems to dream about me." Washington's bigger fear is that U.S. consumers may someday see Chávez in their nightmares. --By Tim Padgett