What Does North Korea Want?

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What alternatives does the U.S. have? Given that a pre-emptive military strike against potential weapons sites would be fraught with complications--who knows how the situation might escalate, especially considering North Korea's substantial conventional arsenal--even anti-Kim hard-liners acknowledge that diplomacy remains the most palatable option. Kim repeated his demand last week for bilateral negotiations with Washington, a prospect the Administration rejects out of hand. The U.S. still hopes to confront the North Koreans in a multilateral setting, and the linchpin of that strategy is China. Bush has long believed that Beijing has the most to gain and lose on the Korean peninsula and would quietly pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear ambitions. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Beijing has been North Korea's closest ally, funneling oil and food. China would have to absorb many refugees if Kim's regime failed.

In the wake of Pyongyang's latest fulminations, the Administration is counting on China to drag the North Koreans back to the six-party table--a role China embraced in a phone call between Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing and Secretary Rice on Saturday night. "China will stay in touch with all relevant parties," Li told her. James Lilley, who was ambassador to both China and South Korea in the 1980s, says Pyongyang's tactics are designed to stall for time and force concessions from outsiders before sitting down to talk again. The only way to counter it, he believes, is to take swift action both jointly and alone. Japan, he argues, could cut off all shipping; South Korea could halt its many industrial and tourism projects with the North; the U.S. could again press for economic sanctions at the U.N. And the Chinese, Lilley says, could "go to the North Koreans, put their arms around their shoulders, kiss them on both cheeks and then whisper in their ears, 'Oh, by the way, your oil? We're gonna cut it 10% a month.'" Says Lilley: "Lets see what happens then. My bet is you'll see fuming and lots of shaking fists and million-man parades, and then they'll come to the table."

That may be the best bet for averting a crisis. But China has yet to sign on to a hard line. Beijing last month sent a Foreign Ministry diplomat to Pyongyang to discuss restarting the talks but never threatened to cut off aid. Its official returned without a deal and convinced that the North's resolve was unbreakable. "Even if China cuts aid," says a member of China's foreign policy establishment who was briefed on the meetings, "they will not weaken." Unless the U.S. and its allies get tough and together in a hurry, the world may soon find itself worried less about how fast Kim is building nuclear bombs than about how we're going to live with them. --Reported by Matt Forney/Beijing, Jim Frederick/Tokyo, Donald Macintyre/Seoul and Elaine Shannon/Washington