When History Turns a Corner

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The closest thing the kingdom has ever had to an election was when businessmen got together in Riyadh and Jidda and elected boards for local chambers of commerce. By those standards, the elections for 178 municipal councils being held in three stages that began on Feb. 10 are a big deal. The regime hopes the election of Shi'ites and tribal leaders in parts of the country where they dominate will help loosen the grip the conservative Wahhabis hold on cultural and religious affairs. But the danger in acceding to Western demands for free elections is that they could result in handing the Islamists power at the ballot box. So far, Islamic factions have carried the day, though without the huge margins many had predicted, and there is some evidence that moderate voters may be more numerous as the balloting continues. Risky as the outcome may be if elections are expanded, "the process is unstoppable," says a foreign analyst in Riyadh. "But so far, this is a very marginal thing, not a surrender of power."

EGYPT Criticism of Hosni Mubarak is still dangerous in Egypt: the one newspaper that dared publish an open attack on the country's leader was shut down a few years ago. But with the world around him changing, Mubarak is too shrewd a politician not to perceive the dangers in resisting the tide of reform. No one is sure exactly what moved the autocratic Mubarak to permit multiparty presidential elections instead of the rubber-stamp referendums that have given him four six-year terms in office. But after the government arrested liberal party head Ayman Nour last month on charges of fraud, the international reaction was unmistakable: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice canceled a planned visit to Cairo. If her message was clear, so was the advantage to Mubarak of opening up Egypt's system just enough to ease international and domestic pressure.

"We are still shocked," said Hesham Kassem, a pro-democracy activist, though no one in Egypt doubts that Mubarak will be elected to a fifth term. Indeed, his move caught opposition parties off guard, and some admitted they may not get organized in time to mount an effective response. To that, Mubarak replied, "They say they are not ready, but someone has to run."

THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES The surprise was not that Palestinians held a successful election. The death of Yasser Arafat in November fundamentally altered the character of their politics. Tired of the Old Man's corruption and violence, a sizable majority of Palestinians chose to replace him with a man known for moderation and willingness to parley with Israel. Even more important, Israel and the U.S., which had ostracized Arafat for two years, were willing to deal with him.

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