When History Turns a Corner

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The key question is, What does Mahmoud Abbas do now that he has won? Last month, Abbas put life into the peace process by firing his security chiefs in the Gaza Strip, who had long failed to quell violence launched from there. His new Interior Minister, General Nasser Youssef, last week replaced all Arafat's top security officers in the unruly West Bank city of Jenin. A source close to Youssef told TIME that he intends to do the same across the West Bank--a step vital in convincing the U.S. and Israel that Arafat's tactic of periodically arresting terrorists and then unleashing them on Israel is over. As Youssef told security offices in Jenin, "We want one government, one system and one gun." Abbas still wants to persuade terrorist groups operating in the territories to run in parliamentary elections scheduled for July. For the first time in years, though, groups like Hamas, which won a strong showing in the balloting in Gaza, have to think seriously about joining the political process or face a serious challenge from Palestinian authorities as well as Israel. Abbas believes that once Hamas is in the parliament, it will have less incentive to indulge in violence against Israel.

Of course, there's a distinction between holding elections and erecting stable democracies. The U.S. labored for years to hold elections in Haiti, only to see the country dissolve into chaos. Lebanon without Syria could prove a violent place where militant groups like Hizballah fill any power vacuum. "If our test with these countries is, they have elections, and we're happy," says a top Democratic aide in Congress, "we're in for a bigger problem than we've solved."

For now, though, Bush and Rice will brook no discussion of slowing down or making compromises in their drive to inspire a democratic Middle East. During her recent swing through Europe, Rice was asked by a German opinion leader whether Arabs are ready to handle democracy. The question pushed every one of the Secretary's buttons. "When the Founding Fathers said, 'We the People,'" Rice replied, "they didn't mean me." That's stirring stuff, but it will take all that and more before the Middle East turns enough corners so that there's no turning back. --Reported by George Baghdadi/Damascus; Nicholas Blanford/Beirut; Amany Radwan and Scott MacLeod/Cairo; Matt Rees and Jamil Hamad/Jerusalem; and James Carney, Matthew Cooper, John F. Dickerson, Elaine Shannon and Adam Zagorin/Washington