The Taiwan Strait

Six days before U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to Beijing last Sunday, China's National People's Congress adopted an antisecession law aimed at Taiwan. The legislation, which authorizes a military attack to prevent the island from seeking independence, has heightened regional tensions and raised a question diplomats would rather not confront: Would China really pull the trigger?

That may depend upon how good Beijing thinks its chances are of winning a military confrontation that could pit China against the U.S. On paper, the mainland's 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army (P.L.A.), the largest force in the world, holds an overwhelming advantage over tiny Taiwan. But the island has tougher coastal defenses than Normandy did, and China's relatively anemic navy is incapable of a full-scale invasion across the 160-km Taiwan Strait. Instead, the P.L.A. has been building up its arsenal in new ways, betting it could force Taiwan to capitulate quickly without a bloody invasion—though that option isn't off the table. An estimated 600 ballistic missiles have been amassed within range of Taiwan. To impose a blockade of the island and deter intervention by the U.S. Seventh Fleet, Beijing has also expanded its submarine fleet, purchasing diesel subs from Russia, which is its main weapons supplier, and producing its own diesel-powered Song-class subs; military analysts expect the Chinese to possess about 85 submarines by 2010, a third more than now.

China's military spending is already up 12.6% to $29.9 billion so far this year. The real figure is likely double that via off-the-books spending, according to an estimate by the U.S.'s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Said CIA Director Porter Goss in Washington last month: "Beijing's military modernization and military buildup could tilt the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. Improved Chinese capabilities threaten U.S. forces." The U.S. fears that the proposed lifting of the European Union's embargo on arms sales to China could further speed modernization of the P.L.A. and destabilize the region.

For Taiwan, the promise of America military support remains the best defense against a Chinese strike. But that deterrent is useless if the island can't hold out on its own until U.S. forces arrive. As the P.L.A. expands, the pressure on Taiwan to maintain the balance of power increases. Some analysts argue that the island hasn't kept pace. Taiwan's military budget has fallen as a percentage of its GDP, and its armed forces have been slow to enact needed institutional reforms, according to U.S. strategic experts. A multibillion-dollar arms purchase from the U.S., pushed by President Chen Shui-bian, has been held up for almost four years because of resistance by the opposition KMT and PFP parties, which claim that the weapons are overpriced. Wu Tung-yeh, a professor at National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, believes the island has let its guard down. "Taiwan," he says, "will have neither will nor the ability to defend itself against China."

Nothing galvanizes politicians like a new military threat, however. The antisecession law appears to have muted objections to the U.S. arms deal. Taiwan should eventually be able to augment its tiny submarine fleet, and add more Patriot antimissile batteries and antisub aircraft. The hardware won't be enough to win an arms race, but it sends a signal that Taiwan is prepared to stand up for itself.