The Men Who Might Be Pope

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Further north, an equally outspoken candidate is Mexico City's Archbishop NORBERTO CARDINAL RIVERA CARRERA, 62. He epitomizes the feverish Catholicism of his 19 million mostly poor acolytes, boosting native rites and symbols. But Rivera Carrera is no liberal; he has close ties to the Legionaries of Christ, a flourishing right-wing society of priests. He is sometimes a too-fierce defender of the faith: when the U.S. pedophile crisis broke, he saw it as a "campaign of media persecution against the entire Catholic church." Another archconservative is DARIO CARDINAL CASTRILLON HOYOS, 75, whose star is said to be fading but who nevertheless has a compelling personal history. Quite like John Paul, this man from Medellín, Colombia, has displayed courage, tenacity and a willingness--even an eagerness--to mix church and state. He has gone deep into Colombian jungles to mediate between leftist guerrillas and right-wing death squads, and once showed up at the house of cocaine king Pablo Escobar disguised as a milkman. Revealing himself, Castrillón Hoyos implored Escobar to confess his sins, which, presumably at some considerable length, the vicious gangster did.

There are also a couple of non-Italian Europeans who will be given consideration. GODFRIED CARDINAL DANEELS, 71, Archbishop of Mechelen-Brussels, Belgium, is an intellectual and a moderate, bordering on being a progressive. He has called for compassion for those who divorce and remarry and has urged a greater role for the laity, including women. CHRISTOPH CARDINAL SCHONBORN, Archbishop of Vienna, is regarded in Rome as a brilliant conservative theologian and a smooth parish leader. He was well placed in life to become both: he studied theology under Cardinal Ratzinger, who will surely argue Schönborn's case before the conclave, and is the third Cardinal in his family's lineage. As might happen with the Italian Scola, Schönborn's relative youth--he is 60--could work against him.

Asia's best chance is with Bombay Archbishop IVAN CARDINAL DIAS, 68. His brother Cardinals appreciate his mix of diplomatic skills (he speaks a dozen languages) and doctrinal clarity in the rocky terrain of multifaith India.

The list extends from here, and as Wojtyla's extraordinary election more than a quarter-century ago proved, there is absolutely no predicting what will occur when the Cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel beneath the Michelangelo frescoes and devoutly swear to "preserve a scrupulous secrecy regarding everything that relates in any way to the election of the Roman Pontiff." Having pledged, they will get down to their task, filling in their ballots under the words "I elect as Supreme Pontiff." Outside, St. Peter's Square will be filled with pilgrims, gazing up at the chimney, awaiting the puff of white smoke that announces Habemus Papam!: "We have a Pope!" --Reported by Jeff Israely/Rome