What The New Job Specs Are

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Until recently, the conventional wisdom had it that the most plausible papabile to respond to such challenges was FRANCIS CARDINAL ARINZE, former head of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue and a native of Nigeria, where Christianity and Islam come into contentious conflict. But his long service in the Vatican bureaucracy, or Curia ("He's more Curial than African" goes a typical comment), and his recent transfer to another department have dimmed his prospects. Some electors may side with Bologna's former ARCHBISHOP GIACOMO CARDINAL BIFFI, who has suggested that non-Catholic immigration to Italy should be limited. But theirs will be a minority view. Says Comunità di Sant'-Egidio's Riccardi: "The man chosen by the Cardinals can't be a Pope of the clash of civilizations." The most common posture in conclave will apparently be one of cautious outreach to what is, by origin, another Abrahamic faith. Two Cardinals normally regarded as conservative, Schönborn and Venice's ANGELO CARDINAL SCOLA, have explored that; the latter founded Oasis magazine.

Collegiality

"It's the sleeper issue at the Conclave," says Father Richard McBrien, a professor of theology at Notre Dame. "I think it should go to the top of your list," says Catholic University's Ferme. Although little-discussed outside the church, there is one area in which the papabili may wish to distinguish themselves by openly criticizing John Paul's legacy: Rome's centralization of power at the expense of its local managers.

For all that they loved him, the late Pontiff's bishops did not thrive under him. The language of the Second Vatican Council had seemed to promise greater "collegiality" between bishops and the Pope (whose office for centuries was less powerful than now). But John Paul did not see it that way. He applied theological litmus tests for bishops' appointments and required national bishops' conferences to clear statements on doctrine with the Vatican. "Even conservative Cardinals of large archdioceses have been unhappy with the way the Curia has interfered with their authority," says McBrien. "They want a Pope who will respect that authority."

Curial Cardinals have tremendous sway in Rome, where their diocese-running brethren are usually only visitors. But diocesan Cardinals will make up the vast preponderance of the electors. That (along with several other factors) is why many Roman sources tout the chances of Ratzinger, a master of the Curial as well as the doctrinal universe, but why non-Romans see him as a potential kingmaker but never the king.

Age Suitability

Prior to the past few weeks, there was much talk that the conclave that replaced John Paul might discount relatively youthful papabili like Schönborn, 60, and Rodríguez Maradiaga, 62. Reason: after John Paul's multidecade marathon, the electors would, as McBrien puts it, "be looking for a breather" and would try to avoid the possibility of another long-term Pontiff. There was much discussion of an older, interim figure, a caretaker who by definition would have to worry less about living up to John Paul's gargantuan legacy.