The New Dude on the Road

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Indeed, for all Toyota's strengths, the company needs a truck hit in the U.S. to offset weaker prospects in other areas. While Toyota is expanding rapidly in Europe and China, those sales tend to be concentrated in the compact-car segment, in which profit margins are low. In Japan, where Toyota intends to launch its Lexus brand in August, the company may have a hard time expanding market share, already at 44%. The dollar's slump against the yen, meanwhile, makes Japanese exports more expensive.

Piece it together, and you'll get an idea of why Toyota is moving to Texas. The state anted up $133 million to lure the new state-of-the-art plant, which when it lights up late next year will feature a highly flexible system for producing eight different models on a single line. Toyota aims to produce 150,000 Tundras annually there, and analysts expect a second line eventually for other models. Says Rob Hinchliffe of UBS: "They're very methodical."

Because Texans buy more pickups per capita than anyone else, Toyota is banking on a core group of buyers in its backyard. The company has started the courting, launching a limited-edition Tundra co-branded with cowboy-boot maker Lucchese and slapping the Toyota name on the Houston Rockets basketball arena. Traditionally, Toyota has done best in cities and on the coasts, selling Corollas and Camrys to baby boomers and Lexuses to well-off urbanites. On the West Coast, Toyota's share is 16%, double its share in the Midwest and the South. Yet Toyota can no longer count on that base since boomers are heading for retirement homes and Hyundai and Kia are coming on strong with compelling models at bargain prices.

Conquering the truck market won't be easy either, in part for cultural reasons. Pickup country is perhaps the last auto segment in which patriotic shopping habits prevail. Despite years of knocking at the market, Toyota sold just 107,000 Tundras in the U.S. last year, while Ford sold 916,000 F-Series trucks. Although Nissan and Honda have joined Toyota in the truck market, heavy investment has made Detroit's pickups more competitive than its cars. And Detroit can still count on the stubborn-guy factor. "I'd consider driving a Chevy, but that'd be about as far as I go," says Don Strumberger, 62, a lifelong Ford man from Dubuque, Iowa. A GM spokeswoman says 94% of folks who buy a GM-manufactured Silverado purchase another GM truck.

All the more reason Toyota is promoting itself as an all-American brand. The last thing Toyota needs is a revival of protectionist consumer sentiment. Recent ads tout the number of U.S. jobs Toyota has created. The company also became the first foreign automaker to crack NASCAR, entering the Tundra last year in the Craftsman Truck Series, and as a NASCAR sponsor Toyota is beginning to get notice from fans. "Being a Chevy man all my life, I'm starting to look at the Toyotas coming out," said Jared Branan, 24, of Kissimmee, Fla., attending a race in Daytona Beach last January. "They're starting to get with the program."