Change in Command: The Iraqis Learn the Ropes

Captain Chris Johnson is ready to roll. He is sitting in his armored humvee at the gate of a U.S. military compound in Baghdad, preparing to head out onto Haifa Street, a haven for insurgents and one of the most dangerous districts in Baghdad. Johnson isn't fully certain where he's heading, so he reaches for a handheld radio slung from his body armor and clicks the hand mike. "Colonel, is everybody going to Gator Base?" A voice crackles back: "Yes." It's a routine exchange, save for one thing: the voice of Johnson's convoy commander belongs not to an American but to Colonel Mohammed Faiq Raouf, a former officer in Saddam Hussein's army who shot down a U.S. jet during the first Gulf War. Johnson and his small team of U.S. soldiers are serving under Raouf's command. Having received his direction, Johnson radios back to Raouf. "I'm ready, Colonel," he says.

If U.S. war planners have their way, exchanges like that will soon become commonplace. With a new Iraqi government settling into office, Washington is in a rush to train an Iraqi army capable of taking over the fight against the insurgency. And it's still a fight. Though senior Pentagon officials are "cautiously optimistic," as one puts it, that the insurgency may be starting to subside, few think the war is close to being won. The Pentagon's measures of the insurgency's strength--there are more than 50 metrics--show that the battle is basically where it was a year ago. For every hint of good news in Iraq, there's still cause for concern. The number of attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces is hovering around 30 to 40 a day, down from a spike of 140 in the days leading up to the Jan. 30 election. But a senior Pentagon official doesn't know whether the lower number amounts to a trend or only a lull. "It could just as well go up next week," he says. The ever present dangers for both foreign and Iraqi civilians were underscored last week by the kidnapping of a U.S. contractor and a rash of suicide bombings; 19 Iraqis were killed in a single day.

Given the level of violence, the number of U.S. troops in Iraq--currently 138,000 in 17 combat brigades--won't come down in the foreseeable future. And the Bush Administration insists it's prepared to keep forces in Iraq until the country is pacified. "We don't have an exit strategy," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said during a surprise visit to Baghdad last week. "We have a victory strategy." But behind the scenes, military planners in Iraq are putting in place a program that provides a glimpse of the future of the counterinsurgency. As the bulk of U.S. troops retreats from the front lines, small groups of military advisers--like Captain Johnson's 12-man team--will form partnerships with Iraqi units fresh out of boot camp, sharing their barracks and accompanying them on missions but allowing the Iraqis to command themselves.