Why Bush's Ban Could Be Reversed

(2 of 4)

House passage, all sides agree, would spur action in the Senate, where prospects for an identical bill are just as good, with 58 co-sponsors--just short of a filibuster-proof majority. It helps that the bill's backers are led by Republican Orrin Hatch of Utah, a lion of the pro-life movement. From the Senate, barring some kind of a procedural snag, the bill would wind up on Bush's desk.

That's an excruciating prospect for the White House, made all the more so by the fact that a rejection of the stem-cell legislation would be Bush's first veto ever. Opponents of embryonic-stem-cell research say they have received private assurances from the White House that the President will stay true to his word, and they are working to get enough votes on their side so that the veto cannot be overturned. Meanwhile, White House aides are huddling with some congressional leaders to come up with an alternative measure of some kind that, in the words of one, would "reflect the President's priorities"--and give Republicans political cover for voting against a popular cause. But they say there should be no mistake about where Bush stands. "When the time comes, if it is necessary, we will make it clear that this violates the President's position," says a senior official. "The wall is firm. No question about it."

If so, the President's stance is one of the few markers on the field of embryonic- stem-cell research that hasn't moved over the past four years. When Bush announced his Executive Order limiting federal funding to studies on existing stem-cell lines, he declared that private research had produced more than 60 genetically diverse lines that would be eligible. Researchers now say the number is more like 22, and even those are contaminated with mouse DNA, making them ill-suited for use on humans. Meanwhile, research is moving ahead without Washington's sanction--not only in places like Britain and Singapore but also in a number of states, led by California. The latest TIME poll found that 53% of respondents said they would like to see other states follow California's lead. And in a number of states, legislators are doing just that. (See box.)

That may be in part because they are beginning to see the consequences for those that lag. Scientists who depend on federal funding, traditionally some of the brightest minds, now find themselves at a disadvantage, and so many are looking elsewhere. G.O.P. Congressman Mark Kirk, a leading backer of the bill, says universities and research institutions in his Chicago-area district are complaining that some of their top talent is leaving for places that offer stem-cell-research programs. At the same time, the diffusion of this work across the nation also raises ethical questions, as each state gets to set its own standards. "One of the fears here is that you are going to have a potpourri of different approaches to this--some of them stretches," says Senator Hatch. "It's a favor to the world to do this right."