Standing his Ground

When opposition politicians James Soong and Lien Chan recently returned from successful bridge-building visits to China, there was every indication that Taiwan's combative President, Chen Shui-bian, and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would be solidly trounced in Saturday's National Assembly election. Chen, who opposes any talk of reunification with mainland China, had seen his popularity rating plunge to 39%, his lowest yet, in the fallout from Lien's and Soong's trips. But that number didn't count at the ballot box: the DPP was a surprise winner in the National Assembly poll, snagging 43% of the votes cast, compared with 39% for Lien's Kuomintang and 6% for Soong's People First Party—both of which want improved ties with China.

The issue facing the 300-member assembly voted in over the weekend is whether Taiwan's 59-year-old constitution, written before the Communists won the Chinese civil war, should be updated. Its members won't find the task an easy one. The assembly will convene by June 1 to approve or reject a package of constitutional amendments drafted last August by Taiwan's legislature. Some of the changes, like increasing the terms of lawmakers, are uncontroversial. Others, such as allowing national referendums, are anything but: Beijing, which considers Taiwan a renegade province, thinks Chen wants to hold a referendum on independence in the remaining three years of his second term. The issue of tinkering with the constitution, like so many others in Taiwan, boomerangs back to the island's big debate: How best to deal with the mainland?

Turnout for the election was 23%, very low by Taiwan standards. Confused by the details of the amendments, many voters seem to have made their choices based on the parties' mainland policies. The recent trips to Beijing by leaders of Taiwan may have made headlines all over the world. But judging by the results, Taiwan's public isn't yet ready to jump onto the détente bandwagon.