Importing Instability

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A successful presidential election and a quiet winter had aroused hopes that the insurgency in Afghanistan might finally be waning. But that was until a recent upsurge in violence was punctuated by a suicide bombing last week that killed 20 people, including Kabul's chief of police, during a funeral procession at the Abdul Rab Akhundzada Mosque in Kandahar. The horrific attack was notable not only for its death toll: the funeral was for Maulavi Abdul Fayaz, a prominent anti-Taliban cleric murdered by suspected Taliban gunmen days earlier, and the bomb—a mixture of explosives and ball bearings—was more sophisticated than those used in previous suicide blasts. "This was a very professional effort and way beyond the capability that we have seen previously from the Taliban," says Nick Downie, a security expert who advises NGOs on safety conditions in Afghanistan. "It does look like an attack planned from abroad."

As Afghanistan prepares for its September parliamentary election, "we are seeing individuals coming into the country either from Pakistan or as part of the al-Qaeda network and attempting to create an atmosphere of instability," says U.S. Army spokeswoman Lieut. Cindy Moore. Indeed, over the past 10 weeks, some 200 militants, including Arabs and Chechens, have died in clashes with U.S.-led and Afghan forces.

Having examined the remains of the suicide bomber who died in Wednesday's mosque attack, Major General Mohammed Muslim, commander of the Afghan troops in Kandahar, asserts: "I am 100% sure he was an Arab." If that is indeed the case, then it would point to al-Qaeda. While the Taliban have denied involvement, Muslim claims the authorities "have evidence that the Taliban were at least indirectly involved in this attack, as well as al-Qaeda." If so, the forecast for summer is beginning to look increasingly ominous.