The Commish

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In the coming months, Mandelson will certainly need all the political skills he can muster. The World Trade Organization ( wto) is trying to prod the world's trade ministers into a new multilateral accord. Trade experts say the prospects for a deal are looking better because of progress on one of the big stumbling blocks: U.S. and E.U. subsidies to their sugar growers, which distort world market prices. But French officials are nervous about the wto and some are deeply suspicious of Mandelson, viewing him as Blair's man in Brussels. That could make it hard for him to persuade Chirac and other leaders that a further liberalization of trade is in their interest. "There's a much higher risk of only a modest outcome to the Doha round," because of antiglobalization fears in Europe, says C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Washington-based Institute for International Economics. Others are more pessimistic. Kenneth S. Rogoff, a former research director at the International Monetary Fund, says: "One has to be very concerned that we will see total trade paralysis over the next five years."

Avoiding such a timid outcome in Hong Kong is the sort of challenge Mandelson relishes. A passionate and ambitious man, he is complex almost to the point of contradiction: a former member of the Young Communist League who served as Britain's Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, a committed pro-European appointed by one of the E.U.'s most Euro-skeptic countries. He played a central role in the British Labour Party's makeover from an unpopular assemblage of hapless lefties to the formidable vote-getting machine it has become. But Mandelson is also notoriously Machiavellian and polarizing, well-known for using anonymous briefings to favored journalists to advance himself and trash his enemies. He can be quite taken with his own grandeur. Says a longtime associate: "I always thought he would have made a good Cardinal in 17th century France. He enjoys those European politics of powerful individuals gliding around, not having to worry about elections." Twice, Mandelson had to resign from Blair's government because of perceptions that he traded favors and influence with major Labour Party donors, although he was formally cleared in 2001 of using improper influence to obtain a British passport for the wealthy Indian businessman Srichand Hinduja. Yet Mandelson's pro-European views are long-established and sincere, according to people who know him well. Denis MacShane, recently sacked as Britain's Europe Minister, says: "Peter is a staunch, convinced European. He wants a successful Europe; he wants a social model, but one that delivers jobs, not unemployment." MacShane adds: "He can play a very big role but it will have to be based on winning friends as much as making headlines."

That's not always his style. But if Mandelson's trade policy can boost growth by making it easier for European firms to sell everything from machine tools to banking services around the world, his prescriptions for solving E.U. problems will be taken more seriously — and Kissinger's question of whom to call will finally have an answer.