Into a Daunting New Year

In foreign policy, Reagan faces no challenge so compelling as producing something tangible from his new, more pragmatic approach to U.S.-Soviet relations. In a surprise move last week, Moscow agreed to allow Reagan to speak directly to the Soviet people on New Year's Day, and Gorbachev will likewise address the American people. The Soviets have long resisted giving the persuasive and telegenic Reagan such exposure, but apparently changed their minds in the hope that Gorbachev could raise U.S. expectations for the summit.

The far harder work is due to resume on Jan. 16, when negotiators from both nations sit down in Geneva for a new round of arms-control talks. They have two things going for them: last November's Geneva meeting helped set a more optimistic tone for relations, and the summit the two men agreed to hold this year (possibly at Camp David) is bound to concentrate minds in both capitals on reaching some substantive agreement that can be signed by then.

The big question is whether the President is willing to negotiate on his Strategic Defense Initiative, better known as Star Wars. This is the kind of issue that puts the two sides of Reagan's persona at conflict. The visionary side sees SDI as a salvation for mankind, a foolproof way of rendering the nuclear threat impotent. The pragmatist in the President may realize that some sort of compromise on SDI, perhaps an agreement to forgo its development and deployment phases for a time, might be the only way of winning Soviet agreement to deep cuts in the mounting arsenals of offensive weaponry. Indeed, the single most fateful decision of 1986 could be whether or not the U.S. renews its commitment to pursue the space-age project that not only may be the costliest in history but also could change forever--for better or worse--the nature of nuclear deterrence.

Any crisis in 1986, domestic or foreign, will become inextricably tangled in the rising partisan rhetoric of a midterm election year. Much as Reagan wants the Republicans to retain control of the Senate, where they hold a 53-47 majority, as a counterweight to the Democrat-run House, he knows that doing so will be no easy task. Two-thirds of the 34 Senate seats at stake in 1986 are held by Republicans. In the House, the Democrats are expected to retain, and perhaps strengthen, their 253-182 advantage.

Reagan plans to campaign and raise funds for vulnerable Republican candidates. Yet the President will probably be taking to the stump with mixed feelings. Whatever the outcome of the midterm race, it will mark the last election of his tenure and signal the real beginning of the presidential race to succeed him. With wide-open nomination battles all but certain in both major parties, the end of 1986 will usher in a two-year political hullabaloo that will increasingly drown out more measured discussions of how to handle the deficit, taxes and the critical challenges of the nuclear age. --By William R. Doerner. Reported by Alessandra Stanley/Washington