Pakistan: A Grudging Return to Democracy

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New elections are not scheduled to take place until 1990. In the meantime, much of the political fray will center on the Political Parties Act. The rules stipulate that a party will be banned if it receives foreign backing, defames the armed forces or infringes on Zia's program of making Pakistan a thoroughly Islamic society. Politicians sympathetic to the government view the party-approval system as a necessary safeguard. Prime Minister Mohammed Khan Junejo, a Zia appointee, called the new law "a decisive move toward the lifting of martial law and a disciplined revival of political parties." Later, Junejo announced that he will lead the revived Pakistan Muslim League.

The opposition sees Zia's reforms largely as a way for him to keep a lid on powerful opposition groups. Several of them plan to challenge the Political Parties Act in the courts. A leader of the Independent Parliamentary Group called it "a weapon to fetter and enfeeble political parties after their resurrection." Opposition politicians are also likely to attack Zia's constitutionally barred dual role as President and army Chief of Staff. After his speech in Parliament, Zia was asked when he would quit the military. He simply smiled and said, "Time will tell." Many members of the opposition in Parliament, however, are confident that Zia will resign as Chief of Staff by March or April at the latest.

In addition to juggling the opposition and his backers in the army, Zia must keep an eye on the U.S. Faced with serious budgetary problems, not to mention the presence of more than 2 million Afghan war refugees in Pakistani border camps, Zia wants the U.S. to double the five-year, $3.2 billion aid package that expires this year. But the U.S. Congress is likely to take a hard look at Pakistan's progress toward democracy before voting more funds. President Reagan, at least, was impressed by the reforms. In a personal letter, Reagan congratulated Zia on "an event of major importance in Pakistan's constitutional evolution."

So far, that evolution has proceeded without a major reversal. But Zia still faces his highest hurdle: at some point he will have to sever his link with the military and run as a civilian candidate for President in fair elections. The opposition, for its part, will be trying to find ways to encourage that move. In his speech Zia, in reasoned tones, asked his political foes "not to repeat the mistakes of the past. Avoid conflict and confrontation." If the politicians heed Zia's request, he may have no choice but to hand over power. --By Edward W. Desmond. Reported by Mohammed Aftab and Ross H. Munro/Islamabad