Don't Mess With Us

There's never a good moment for nuclear threats, but a Chinese general's assertion last week that his country should strike American cities with nuclear missiles if the U.S. came to the aid of Taiwan in a war with the mainland seemed particularly ill-timed. Beijing's relations with Washington have deteriorated in recent months over trade frictions, fears of a Chinese military buildup, and concerns that a bid by Chinese oil company CNOOC to buy U.S. energy firm Unocal threatens national security. So it came as a shock when People's Liberation Army (P.L.A.) Major General Zhu Chenghu, 53, told a group of foreign reporters in Beijing that "if the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition onto the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons." He warned that the U.S. "will have to be prepared that hundreds of cities will be destroyed."

The U.S. State Department called Zhu's comments "highly irresponsible." Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province, greeted the news with concern too. Zhu's remarks "will only deteriorate China's relationship with Taiwan, the U.S., and other neighboring Asian countries," says Tung Li-wen, director of China affairs for Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party. It's unclear, though, whether Zhu's comments are an indication that China is changing its longstanding "no first use" policy on nuclear weapons. Zhu, who also heads the National Defense University's College of Defense Studies, stressed that he was not speaking for the government—an assertion echoed the next day by Assistant Foreign Minister Shen Guofang, who said Zhu was merely expressing his personal views.

Some found the assurances unconvincing. "Regardless of how many disclaimers there are, the fact is that a general in the P.L.A. made a highly provocative threat about using nuclear weapons first in a conflict with the U.S.," says Evan Medeiros, an expert on the Chinese military at the Rand Corp., a think tank in Virginia. "This reinforces longstanding American concerns about China's willingness to use force over Taiwan and the potential for nuclear escalation." Near the end of his comments last week, Zhu added that he was confident the U.S. and China would not go to war "unless the politicians of these two countries go mad." Keeping the generals in check might help, too.