Who's Scary Now?

With Kim Jong Il suddenly remaking himself into a friend of the West and with leaders from Libya to Iran whispering hints of moderation, what's left to fear? Plenty, according to Washington think tanks and Pentagon planners who specialize in looking for the next threat. Among the biggest worries are terrorism, Iraq, the continuing threat from Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals, and ongoing conflicts with small but hard-to-hit "sub-state" groups such as the narcotics traffickers currently working the U.S.-Mexican border.

And new threats are emerging every day. In 1998, for instance, India and Pakistan joined the nuclear armed club—which was worrying enough to the world. But 18 months later, Pakistan underwent a military coup, ejecting the Prime Minister and replacing him with a general. In its case it seems unlikely that the new government is going to nuke anyone, but the coup was a reminder to policy planners of how quickly a situation that just looks "bad" can get worse. Russia's thousands of warheads remain a worry, and some of the more concerned analysts fear that the country is just one bad winter away from an anti-U.S. policy. They also fear the chance of an accidental war, set off by all the poorly maintained missiles still pointed up. Says Peter Pry, a House staff member and author of War Scare: "I'm more concerned than ever that we could stumble into the big one with [Russia]." That's a problem that bilateral friendliness alone can't solve.