Welcome to the New Washington
For months JOHN MCCAIN has been the Democrats' favorite co-sponsor on everything from a patient's bill of rights to gun control. TED KENNEDY and JOHN EDWARDS like him so much that they have been urging the maverick to switch sides. Though McCain has declined, he thought about it long enough to prompt a dinner invitation from the President last week. The shift in power only enhances his stature. "This move makes John McCain the de facto Republican leader in the Senate," says a top Republican operative.
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While McCain has reached across the aisle, some Republicans grouse that TRENT LOTT can't reach across his own party. Lott responded last Friday by giving a new leadership post to moderate ARLEN SPECTER but may face a fight to keep his job next year.
Bush political guru KARL ROVE may need to rethink the White House's hardball tactics. His reaction to Jeffords' switch, portraying him as selfish and power hungry, shows the lesson hasn't sunk in yet.
For TOM DASCHLE, the new challenge is to show he can lead with a slim margin. Daschle and majority whip HARRY REID must keep their fractious caucus together, especially the powerful new Democratic committee chairmen (below). The leaders may already face trouble as JOE BIDEN considers pushing for his old job running the Judiciary Committee rather than Foreign Relations. That could set off a chain reaction, forcing several other Democratic chairmen to switch jobs.
HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR & PENSIONS
WHO'S IN... EDWARD M. KENNEDY Massachusetts
WHO'S OUT... JAMES M. JEFFORDS Vermont
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--THE PATIENT'S BILL OF RIGHTS McCain, Kennedy and Edwards' bill will be the Dems' first major fight. Bush supports a weaker version, but with Teddy running things, there's little doubt which will reach the Senate floor first.
--MINIMUM-WAGE INCREASE Kennedy may get it sooner now. Republicans will accept an increase if there's tax relief for businesses.
JUDICIARY
WHO'S IN... PATRICK LEAHY Vermont ?
WHO'S OUT... ORRIN G. HATCH Utah
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--JUDICIAL NOMINEES Regardless of whether Leahy or Biden gets the gavel, Bush will have to send up some moderate nominees to keep the Dems from stalling his conservatives with lengthy hearings. The Dems will ask the American Bar Association to evaluate nominees, a practice Bush tried to end. An opening on the Supreme Court could lead to a bloodbath.
ENVIRONMENT & PUBLIC WORKS
WHO'S IN... JAMES M. JEFFORDS Vermont
WHO'S OUT... BOB SMITH New Hampshire
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS Jeffords has already introduced a bill to clean up power plants and limit CO2 emissions, a campaign promise Bush dropped earlier this year.
--FIGHTING THE BUSH ENERGY PLAN Jeffords will combat any White House efforts to loosen environmental regulations to allow more oil and gas drilling. He supports increased nuclear energy, however.
APPROPRIATIONS
WHO'S IN... ROBERT C. BYRD West Virginia
WHO'S OUT... TED STEVENS Alaska
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--INCREASED DOMESTIC SPENDING The new Senate president pro tem has made it clear he thinks Bush's budget is woefully inadequate. Byrd will increase cash for Dem priorities. Bush may have to choose between getting money for his own projects and keeping spending increases at 4%. Byrd and Stevens already work well together on a committee that requires a lot of mutual back scratching.
ARMED SERVICES
WHO'S IN... CARL LEVIN Michigan
WHO'S OUT... JOHN W. WARNER Virginia
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--MISSILE DEFENSE The White House has been trying to limit Senate oversight of a missile defense system. Levin, a big NMD skeptic, could reduce research funding or order more testing before the system is built.
--PENTAGON OVERHAUL Don Rumsfeld may face tough questions on his strategic military review, though Levin will be more receptive than Warner to trimming waste.
ENERGY & NATURAL RESOURCES
WHO'S IN... JEFF BINGAMAN New Mexico
WHO'S OUT... FRANK MURKOWSKI Alaska
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--A DEMOCRATIC ENERGY PLAN Bingaman has proposed price caps on wholesale energy in states like California. Drilling in the Arctic Refuge, already a hard sell, loses its biggest cheerleader in Murkowski.
--FUEL-EFFICIENCY STANDARDS Bingaman will take a serious look at raising standards on SUVs and put money back into renewable-energy programs.
FINANCE
WHO'S IN... MAX BAUCUS Montana
WHO'S OUT... CHARLES GRASSLEY Iowa
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--PRESCRIPTION-DRUG BENEFIT Drug costs are a big issue in Montana, so Baucus will push for a larger benefit than Bush wants. Bush may have to agree to it if he wants real Medicare reform.
--NO MORE TAX CUTS Republicans were eager for more cuts later this year. Baucus broke with Daschle and cut a deal with Grassley on Bush's bill. He'll prove he's a Dem by stopping further cuts.
FOREIGN RELATIONS
WHO'S IN... JOSEPH R. BIDEN Delaware ?
WHO'S OUT... JESSE HELMS North Carolina
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--INTERNATIONALISM Whether Biden or another Dem replaces Helms, either will be far friendlier to the United Nations and put fewer restrictions on foreign aid.
--MISSILE DEFENSE Biden strongly questions the Administration's plan to dump the ABM Treaty for missile defense. He'll ask tough questions on how NMD will affect U.S. relations with Russia, China and American allies.
COMMERCE
WHO'S IN... ERNEST F. HOLLINGS South Carolina
WHO'S OUT... JOHN McCAIN Arizona
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--DEREGULATION Businesses found McCain an unpredictable maverick, but Hollings is consistently hostile to deregulation in several industries. He'll fight G.O.P. plans to let media companies own TV stations and newspapers in the same city.
--INTERNET ACCESS Hollings opposes a bill to give Baby Bells a bigger share of the Internet-access market.
GOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS
WHO'S IN... JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN Connecticut
WHO'S OUT... FRED THOMPSON Tennessee
AND THE IMPACT ON...
--ELECTORAL REFORM Lieberman and Thompson are already working on a bill to help states update voting technology, an issue that's been stalled.
--GOVERNMENT OVERSIGHT Lieberman is no scandalmonger, so don't expect multiple investigations. He'll tackle government efficiency issues, and the bigger microphone will certainly help in 2004.
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