Investing: Bill's Bad Bet

(2 of 2)

As oil prices fall, easing pressure on the economy, Miller expects the somnolent stock market to revive. Among the companies he thinks will benefit are banking behemoths like J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup. He's also wagering that Internet company Expedia will profit from increased online travel bookings and that other consumer plays, like Sears Holdings and Home Depot, will rebound as concerns over high fuel costs fade.

His "anti-oil" portfolio, as Miller calls it, should rally sharply if the price of crude slumps. But will it happen in time for him to beat the market for the 15th straight year? Miller knows the odds are against him. If only he had bought those oil and gas stocks, he laments, "we'd be nicely ahead of the market now." For once, he understands how hapless the market makes the rest of us feel, but in Miller's case, that lesson in humility may prove as ephemeral as the gathering gloom over the price of oil.