Iraq: Faces of Resistance

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Some Sunni leaders acknowledge that the boycott was a mistake and are urging their followers to turn out this Saturday--to vote against the constitution. In Sunni-dominated Anbar and Salahuddin provinces, up to 75% of eligible voters have registered to vote. If two-thirds of voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote no, the draft constitution will be thrown out and a new government, elected on Dec. 15, will go back to the drawing board to produce a new charter. The Iraqi parliament tried to change the rules last week so that it would take two-thirds of the registered voters--not just those who actually vote--to defeat the constitution, but reversed itself after the move was condemned by the U.N. Still, if Sunnis do turn out in high numbers and the referendum passes despite their opposition, the losers probably won't be philosophical in defeat. "What worries me the most is the scenario in which the Sunnis make a maximum effort and fall just a bit short," says Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "The possible reaction is, 'It's all rigged against us.' That's the troubling scenario, and it's also the most likely."

Moderate Sunni leaders are pushing for an 11th-hour compromise on the draft constitution's wording under which the Shi'ites and Kurds drop their key demand for federalism in exchange for Sunni support. "We will keep negotiating until the last minute," says Saleh al-Mutlaq, the lead Sunni negotiator. "If we can get a compromise, our people will be happy to vote yes, and we can all move forward as Iraqis." But the Shi'ites and the Kurds have shown little inclination to compromise, and there is enough Sunni mistrust to fuel the insurgency for years. At the Abu Hanifa mosque, al-Bayati and Abdel-Haadi continue to argue over the way forward, with the younger man saying he is not prepared to give up on politics. "We have to be inside the system, not shouting on the outside," he says. But after a few more minutes of discussion, al-Bayati cuts him off and makes it clear that Sunnis like himself, at least, aren't ready to stop fighting. "There will be 20 drafts of the constitution," he says as he rises from the carpeted floor to leave. "But the last one will be written by the mujahedin."