Hope Is In The Air

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"We survived the four horsemen of the apocalypse — SARS, conflict in Iraq, terrorism and the economy," said Giovanni Bisignani, head of global airline-industry group IATA, last year. "But a fifth horseman, the price of oil, could deny us profitability yet again."

Not in Ryanair's case. The Dublin-based budget airline's fuel bill doubled in the six months to October, but it still cheered earnings of $277 million last week, a year- on-year rise of 18%. CEO Michael O'Leary's course of squeezing nonfuel costs and pushing up passenger volumes will "see [Ryanair] through an awful lot of tough times," says Joe Gill, research director at Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin.

Even European flag carriers like Iberia and Air France-KLM, which have faltered as no-frills carriers enticed away their short-haul custom, might see things looking up. IATA says international passenger traffic is up 8.3% this year, and order books at Airbus and Boeing are bulging; the U.S. manufacturer has taken 659 orders this year versus 277 in all of 2004.

If the U.S. and the E.U. succeed, in talks resuming this week, to open up the transatlantic market, new routes could flourish, suggests Gill. Glasgow to Cleveland anyone?