Symptoms of Withdrawal

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Iraq's struggle to form a democratic government--with different constituencies competing for political power and votes-- has jolted other authoritarian regimes in the region. And by throwing its weight behind democracy elsewhere, the Bush Administration has helped other freedom movements in the region. In Egypt, for example, President Hosni Mubarak relented and this year allowed the country to hold its first ever multiparty presidential election. But if Iraq ends up in chaos after a U.S. military drawdown, the instability could spread to its neighbors--and snuff out any hopes of freedom flowering elsewhere in the Arab world.

Would a drawdown in Iraq make Americans safer back home?

Not necessarily. Although Al-Qaeda has not mounted another strike against the U.S. on the scale of the 9/11 attack, it has successfully used the Iraq war in its terrorist-recruiting drive. Led by Abu Mousab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian operative who directs many of the foreign jihadists, the Iraqi insurgency has attracted Islamic terrorists from around the world. But even without the provocation of Iraq, there's no reason to assume the terrorist threat to the U.S. would disappear. "Whether we pull out of Iraq or not," says a U.S. counterterrorism official, "al-Qaeda will still want to hit us where it hurts: in the homeland."

But a withdrawal could help the U.S. redeploy to fight terrorists elsewhere. Iraq has placed a particular strain on forces belonging to the Pentagon and the CIA. The U.S. Special Operations Command, which Rumsfeld has ordered to lead the Pentagon's part of the war on terrorism, has 88% of its 7,000-odd commandos deployed overseas assigned to the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. The CIA's clandestine service has only about 900 to 1,000 operatives, a large number of whom have rotated in and out of its Baghdad station, which has had as many as 500 spies and analysts.

Strategically, however, any U.S. withdrawal would have to be conducted "from a position of strength," says Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Rand. Al-Qaeda has always believed Americans lack patience and stamina when "the going gets rough," Hoffman says. "If the U.S. is seen as being stampeded out of the violence in Iraq, that will only be waving a red flag at the terrorists." But coming up with an exit strategy for Iraq--without appearing to run away--won't be easy.