The New Rules of Engagement

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But it's becoming increasingly doubtful that Americans are willing to wait that long. In a TIME poll taken last week, 47% said they supported withdrawing most troops in a year or so, regardless of conditions in Iraq, while only 40% said the U.S. should stay until Iraq has a stable, democratic government. Half of those surveyed said the U.S. was wrong to go to war in Iraq, a figure largely unchanged for the past year. The U.S. doesn't have many options. Despite White House hopes that local security forces can relieve U.S. troops, intelligence officials are not nearly so optimistic that Iraqification will bring stability. "Will we ever see Iraqi security forces capable of crushing this insurgency? Probably not. No," says a high-ranking military-intelligence officer in Iraq. The dilemma is that the longer U.S. forces stay, the more the insurgency is sustained by new recruits, yet withdrawing now could allow al-Qaeda and Iran to consolidate their influence in Iraq, dealing a body blow to U.S. regional interests. Even Washington's staunchest political ally, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, says the U.S. is not winning and must have the courage to seek new solutions.

That's why U.S. officials in Iraq are reaching out to the Sunnis, the insurgents and former Baath Party members as part of a program to quell the violence by peeling them away from al-Zarqawi. "The fault line between al-Qaeda and the nationalists seems to have increased," says Ambassador Khalilzad. Here's an inside look at how those splits have started to emerge, how they are redefining the shape of the insurgency in Iraq--and why the U.S. is now turning to some of its old enemies.

INSIDE THE RESISTANCE

After 31 months of fighting in Iraq, the U.S. still can't say for sure whom it is up against. Each week coalition forces kill hundreds of insurgents, but there is no end of replacements. U.S. commanders believe that as many as 20,000 fighters are in the field on any given day, a figure that has remained constant for almost two years. Many insurgent groups have become more tactically sophisticated and more lethal, and around 2,000 attacks are launched each month. Training facilities are dotted across Iraq; videos obtained by TIME show classes in infantry techniques and handling weapons. Abu Baqr, a former emir, or commander, of a nationalist militia in Baghdad who was recently released from a U.S. military prison and is rebuilding his team, tells TIME that "in the beginning, even I didn't know how to use most of the weapons, but I learned. We give out weapons from the old army, and the money that funds us comes from wealthy individuals."

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