His Search For A New Groove

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Nowhere is that more important than in confronting the nation's growing doubts about the Iraq war. Republicans are worried that Bush's message has been long on showmanship and short on facts. White House officials insist that 2006 will be "a transitional year" in Iraq, and have made it clear they will push Iraqi officials to swiftly form a government after this week's elections. Bush's gargantuan PLAN FOR VICTORY banner was not there when Bush went before the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington last week, nor did the event have the rapturous crowd that is the trademark of this White House's advance team. Indeed, Bush's appearance was so hastily arranged that the organization had trouble filling the seats and ended up inviting members by e-mail to bring a friend. But the speech itself, a sober view of what it will take to revive the Iraqi economy, was well received by a group that represents the élite in the foreign-affairs establishment. "I told him I thought it was a good speech. The White House is no longer in the triumphalist stage," says council president Haass, a former Administration official who has criticized the Iraq invasion as a "war of choice."

However improbable the odds at this point or modest his short-term goals, aides say, Bush still subscribes to Rove's long-held dream that his will be the transformational presidency that lays the groundwork for a Republican majority that can endure, as Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal coalition did, for a half-century or more. Once he gets past the midterm elections, Bush plans to introduce a concept that, if anything, is even more ambitious than his failed Social Security plan: a grand overhaul that would include not only that program but Medicare and Medicaid as well. Says strategist McKinnon: "He knows that part of what he brings to the presidency is an ability and commitment to chart a long course under public pressure." The question that will be answered in the coming year is whether America still believes in George Bush enough to follow.